Deutsche Bank sanctionnée pour blanchiment d'argent Russe

 

La première banque allemande a écopé d'une amende de 630 millions de dollars dans le cadre d'une enquête des autorités américaine et britannique sur le blanchiment de 10 milliards de dollars. Il s'agit de la deuxième amende pour la banque en un mois.

 

Deutsche Bank continue de solder au prix fort ses litiges liés au passé. La première banque allemande a ainsi accepté de verser 630 millions de dollars (590 millions d'euros) aux régulateurs du secteur bancaire britannique et de l'État de New York aux États-Unis.

 Cette amende vise à régler des litiges liés aux «transactions miroirs» de clients russes.
Le montage permettait à des clients d'acheter des actions à Moscou en roubles et de les revendre quasi instantanément à Londres ou à New York dans d'autres devises, dont le dollar.
Entre 2011 et 2015, le mécanisme a permis de sortir de Russie l'équivalent de 10 milliards de dollars. «Les transactions qui se compensaient n'avaient pas dans ce cas d'objectif économique et ont pu être utilisées pour faciliter du blanchiment ou permettre d'autres pratiques illicites», a indiqué le département des services financiers de New York (DFS) qui a infligé une amende de 425 millions de dollars à Deutsche Bank.

 «La banque a ignoré de nombreuses occasions de détecter, d'enquêter et de mettre un terme à ce mécanisme en raison d'importantes défaillances qui lui ont permis de perdurer pendant des années.»

Le régulateur financier britannique a infligé séparément une amende de 163 millions de livres sterling (191 millions d'euros) à Deutsche Bank pour de graves carences en matière de surveillance des opérations de blanchiment entre 2012 et 2015, ce qui avait permis à certains de ses clients de transférer des milliards de fonds de Russie sur des comptes bancaires offshore «d'une manière qui laisse fortement soupçonner un délit financier». Il s'agit de la plus forte amende jamais imposée par le régulateur financier britannique pour une défaillance de surveillance des opérations de blanchiment.

Il s'agit de la deuxième amende pour Deutsche Bank en un mois seulement. Alors qu'elle était menacée d'une amende record de 14 milliards de dollars pour avoir vendu en toute connaissance de cause entre 2006 et 2008 des crédits immobiliers toxiques convertis en produits financiers (les fameux subprimes), celle-ci est parvenue à réduire la note de moitié.

La banque a donc signé en janvier avec le ministère de la Justice américaine un accord amiable de 7,2 milliards de dollars (6,7 milliards d'euros). Celui-ci est décomposé en deux volets: une amende civile de 3,1 milliards de dollars pour son rôle joué dans les subprimes, auxquels s'ajouteront 4,1 milliards de dollars pour indemniser les clients (sous forme notamment de révision des conditions de prêts déjà accordés et d'aides aux propriétaires et emprunteurs sur cinq ans).

Résultat, bien qu'elle ait renoué avec les profits au troisième trimestre, Deutsche Bank, devrait selon les analystes, enregistrer une perte de plus de 650 millions d'euros sur l'ensemble de l'année 2016 (les résultats seront publiés jeudi). La banque est loin d'en avoir fini avec les problèmes judiciaires.

 Elle a d'ailleurs indiqué mardi qu'elle continuait de collaborer avec d'autres régulateurs et autorités judiciaires dont les enquêtes sont encore en cours. Son nom est cité dans près de 8000 litiges en cours dans le monde.
 

Germany’s Social Democrats pick Martin Schulz as leader

For months, Sigmar Gabriel, the boss of Germany’s Social Democrats (SPD), has wrestled with the decision of whether to run against Angela Merkel, the chancellor, in the federal election on September 24th. His personal popularity lags far behind hers. In polls, the SPD has the support of only 21% of Germans; Mrs Merkel’s centre-right bloc has 37%.

His support in his own party, especially among its left wing, is weak. And, as Mrs Merkel’s coalition partner, vice-chancellor and cabinet minister, he sounded unconvincing when attacking her policies. Knowing that he was bound to fail, on January 24th he chose instead to surprise his party by stepping down and handing over to another Social Democrat with a better chance.

The new party leader and candidate for chancellor will be a friend of his, Martin Schulz. Mr Schulz, as the former president of the European Parliament, has several advantages over Mr Gabriel (who is planning to become foreign minister instead).

 Mr Schulz is known as a straight talker and an unequivocal champion of European integration. Standing next to Mr Gabriel for his announcement, he promised to “fight all populists”, a reference to the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a right-wing Eurosceptic party.

And, having been outside of German domestic politics, Mr Schulz is not tainted by the SPD’s grand coalition with Mrs Merkel. He can attack her, the party hopes, better than any other Social Democrat can today
Unfortunately for the SPD, even that does not improve the party’s chance of victory much. Mrs Merkel’s approval ratings have recovered from the lows seen during the refugee crisis in the winter of 2015-16. They now stand at 74% according to Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, a pollster—a level most world leaders can only dream of. Germans clearly believe that Mrs Merkel has restored order.
 After 890,000 refugees arrived in 2015, only 280,000 came last year, and the numbers appear still to be falling. Some 57% of Germans now feel that the country can cope with the refugees.

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Even the terrorist attack in Berlin in December, when a Tunisian refugee drove a truck through a Christmas market and killed 12 people, appears to have helped Mrs Merkel. In a poll soon after the attack, 68% of Germans said they did not blame Mrs Merkel’s refugee policy. Of those who did, most already supported the AfD, which nonetheless remains stuck at around 12% in national polls.

Instead, the attack has shifted the political debate away from inequality, the SPD’s preferred topic, and towards security, the traditional forte of Mrs Merkel’s Christian Democrats. Thomas de Maizière, Mrs Merkel’s Christian Democrat interior minister, this month proposed an overhaul of Germany’s security architecture: he would centralise agency bureaucracies that are currently dispersed among the 16 federal states, deport rejected asylum applicants faster and detain suspected terrorists longer. If security remains the battleground of the election, Mr Schulz will struggle to score points against Mrs Merkel.
Moreover, the coalition maths favours Mrs Merkel.

The Social Democrats would face a daunting task to find partners to reach a majority of seats in the Bundestag. Like all mainstream parties, they have ruled out talking to the AfD. But even an alliance with the other two parties on the left—the ecology-minded Greens and the post-communist Left party—would fall short of a majority, according to all recent polls. Everything therefore points to Mrs Merkel being the only one able to form a ruling coalition. The Social Democrats might even be willing to remain in their current position as junior partners.

It helps Mrs Merkel that world news is keeping Germans anxious for steady leadership. America’s new president, Donald Trump, perturbs them daily with his tweets. And negotiations for Brexit will begin later this spring. To Germans, both Mr Trump’s presidency and Brexit threaten to unravel the Western-dominated world order in which post-war Germany has been successfully embedded, built around the European Union, NATO and the free-trade agreements on which Germany’s exporters rely.

Outside of Germany, this has raised hopes that Mrs Merkel would take up the mantle of defender of the liberal order that America and Britain appear to have dropped. Uncomfortable with such expectations, she has called that suggestion “grotesque”. But as the year progresses, with strong populist showings possible in the Dutch and French elections, German voters are likely to value responsible leadership even more. They will respect Mr Schulz, who has overcome much hardship in his life.

 After a knee injury cut short his dream of becoming a footballer, he became alcoholic in his early twenties, but has been a teetotaller since 1980. However, in choosing their leader Germans are likely to plump again for what they see as the safest pair of hands: those belonging to their long-reigning chancellor. 

The ECB’s Monetary Policy

The ECB did a great deal to help combat the crisis, starting with the banking turmoil in 2008, the sovereign debt crisis from 2010 onwards and later the prolonged low inflation.
In doing so, it took a number of measures. Some of them form part of conventional monetary policy, others are new or, at least for the euro area, unusual.

Thus, when inflation remains too low for a long time it’s a conventional measure for a central bank to lower interest rates. The idea behind this is as follows: the lower the interest rates are, the more attractive it is for companies to invest and for people to consume. Demand goes up, as do prices.

Yet this conventional monetary policy virtually became a new instrument in June 2014. For the ECB cut the deposit rate for banks to below zero – the zero lower bound was breached. Since then, banks have had to pay interest on their deposits at the ECB.

Do you find it strange to pay someone in order to lend money to them?
It is at the very least unusual, but there is a reason for it in this case. The idea is to encourage a bank to lend its money elsewhere – for example, to businesses. That is one effect of negative rates.

And there is a second effect – aimed at investors in the financial markets. It was made clear to them that short-term interest rates could fall below zero. Mindful of this, investors adjusted their interest rate expectations downwards; long-term interest rates have fallen. This has strengthened the desired effect on investment and consumption.

The low interest rates are now being severely criticised, particularly in Germany. It’s claimed that the ECB is penalising savers, destroying the banks’ business models and ultimately doing more harm than good.

In the past, my point of view in this debate was always that low interest rates are justified.
Interest rate cuts are the “normal”, the called-for, monetary policy measure of a central bank when inflation is well below the objective.

This is all the more the case when inflation remains low, when inflation expectations show no signs of improvement, when growth is very weak and unemployment rising. In such circumstances every other central bank would have cut interest rates.

That I am more critical of some non-standard monetary policy instruments, such as the purchase of government bonds, is well known.

However, the world keeps on turning and the debate moves on. The situation seems to be improving in the euro area. Consumer confidence in December was at its highest for 18 months. Unemployment is at a seven-year low. A broad-based recovery is under way – across countries and sectors.

At the same time, inflation in the euro area rose significantly – from 0.6% in November to 1.1% in December. In Germany inflation even stood at 1.7% in December.

And unsurprisingly, some are calling for the ECB to put a quick end to its loose monetary policy.

In terms of the desired level of inflation, it’s been a long, cold winter. We are now seeing the first ray of sunshine – that’s good. Is this ray already having a warming effect and does it herald the spring? Is inflation really back? Perhaps one or two more rays of sunshine are needed; they’ll bring a bit more warmth.

Higher inflation is currently being driven mainly by energy prices and they could well have only a temporary effect. What’s more important here is underlying inflation, from which the very volatile energy and food prices are excluded.

And underlying inflation in December was just 0.9%, after 0.8% in November. This rise was largely due to the fact that package holidays became more expensive in Germany. However, this does not tell us much as the prices of package holidays are always fluctuating.

Does this mean we still have to wait a long time before exiting accommodative monetary policy?

In my view it doesn’t mean waiting until the last doubt about the return of inflation has been dispelled. It is rather a matter of not risking a reaction to a temporary inflation spike – which then might lead to longer, exceptional monetary policy measures.

All preconditions for a stable rise in inflation exist. I am thus optimistic that we can soon turn to the question of an exit. That’s why we need to be ready to act when the time comes.
For loose monetary policy is like a strong medicine for someone who’s very sick. It works, no doubt, but it also has side effects – and some of the unconventional measures have stronger side effects than others. And while the intended benefits of these measures wear off over time, the side effects and risks increase.

That’s why it’s important to stop taking the medicine as soon as possible, but not too early either. Otherwise, we risk having a relapse.

And let me reassure you that, to stick with the metaphor, I am an optimistic doctor who believes in self-healing powers and gladly stops prescribing the medicine sooner rather than later.

And, above all, as with many medicines, you shouldn’t abruptly stop loose monetary policy, but slowly cut the dose – such a policy has to be reduced gradually.

In any case, loose monetary policy can help put a patient back on her feet, but by itself it can’t ensure that she’ll go on long walks again. Monetary policy cannot create sustainable growth. Other things are necessary.

 Sound economic structures form the basis for long-lasting growth; reforms are the right therapy.

EIF and the Greek Government launch new EUR 260 million Equity Fund-of-Funds


The European Investment Fund (EIF) and the Hellenic republic, represented by the Greek Ministry of Economy and Development have today signed a Funding Agreement to establish a EUR 260 million risk capital Fund-of-Funds. This new financial instrument, which will finance independently-managed funds, aims to facilitate access to finance for entrepreneurs in the country. By attracting private capitals, the Fund will help them turn their ideas into concrete projects with high value added, for the direct benefit of the Greek real economy.

This new initiative will support technology transfer funds in Greece and kick-start investments into accelerator funds. Equity companies, from early stage start-up companies to mature growth companies, will also benefit from the EUR 260 million Fund-of-Funds. The Fund-of-Funds will be instrumental in unlocking the equity potential in the Greek market.
The Fund-of-Funds is supported by the European Structural and Investment Funds (ESI Funds) and will be backed by the European Fund for Strategic Investments (EFSI), the heart of the European Commission's Investment Plan for Europe. It will also be the first time that ESI Funds and the EFSI are combined in Greece. EUR 200 million comes from the Operational Programme Competitiveness, Entrepreneurship and Innovation 2014-2020, supported by the European Regional Development Fund. 
This amount will be complemented by EUR 60 million co-invested by EIF, which will include up to EUR 10 million from EFSI supported resources.

The Hellenic republic, represented by the Greek Ministry of Economy and Development and EIF through their EUR 260 million commitment will constitute the first cornerstone investors in a broader equity investment platform which, is designed to attract more like-minded institutional investors.

Background information

The European Investment Fund (EIF) is part of the European Investment Bank group. Its central mission is to support Europe's micro, small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) by helping them to access finance. EIF designs and develops venture and growth capital, guarantees and microfinance instruments which specifically target this market segment. In this role, EIF fosters EU objectives in support of innovation, research and development, entrepreneurship, growth, and employment.

The Investment Plan for Europe focuses on strengthening European investments to create jobs and growth. It does so by making smarter use of new and existing financial resources, removing obstacles to investment, providing visibility and technical assistance to investment projects. The Investment Plan is already showing results. The projects and agréments approved for financing under the EFSI so far are expected to mobilise more than EUR 164 billion in total investments across 27 Member States and to support almost 388,000 SMEs. On 14 September 2016, the Commission proposed extending the EFSI by increasing its firepower and duration as well as reinforcing its strengths.

	VARIAÇÕES HOMÓLOGAS
	HOMOLOGOUS CHANGE
Empréstimos de Outras Instituições Financeiras Monetárias a Particulares
Loans of Other Monetary Financial Institutions to Private Individuals
					Milhões de Euros
					Millions of Euros
Crédito		Concedido		Cobrança Duvidosa
Banking Credit	Installment Credit			Uncertain Collection
Habitação	OUT.15	99.340			2.569
Mortgage	OUT.16	94.907	-4,46%		2.394	-6,81%
Consumo	OUT.15	11.929			1.261
Consumption	OUT.16	13.776	15,48%		1.066	-15,46%
Outros Fins	OUT.15	9.587			1.509
Another Finality	OUT.16	8.907	-7,09%		1.390	-7,89%
Total	OUT.15	120.857			5.339
Total	OUT.16	117.590	-2,70%		4.851	-9,14%
Fonte: Boletim Estatístico do Banco de Portugal
Source: Portugal Central Bank

	VARIAÇÕES HOMÓLOGAS
	HOMOLOGOUS CHANGE
Empréstimos de Outras Instituições Financeiras Monetárias a Empresas Não Financeiras
Loans of Other Monetary Financial Institutions to Non-Financial Corporations
					Milhões de Euros
					Millions of Euros
	Crédito Concedido				Cobrança Duvidosa
Installment Credit				Uncertain Collection
	OUT.15	83.314			13.635
	OUT.16	78.101	-6,26%		12.880	-5,54%
Fonte: Boletim Estatístico do Banco de Portugal
Source: Portugal Central Bank