Note: Consumer Confidence and Economic Climate indicators.
Source: Statistics Portugal (INE).
Consultoria, aconselhamento e esclarecimento no Endividamento das Famílias e das Empresas não Financeiras. Consultadoria Estratégica Económica, Financeira e Bancária. Indebteness Consultancy for Family's and Enterprises. General Banking, Economics and Financial Strategic Consultancy.
terça-feira, 30 de julho de 2019
Portugal: Consumer confidence improves in June, along with economic sentimento
Consumers turned slightly more optimistic in June, with the consumer confidence index rising to minus 8.4 points from minus 9.0 points in May. A markedly less pessimistic outlook on the general economic situation in the next 12 months drove the improved reading. Households were also marginally more upbeat about their personal finances in the past year. On the downside, respondents were slightly more downbeat regarding their personal financial situation in the next 12 months and also showed less willingness to make major purchases over the coming year.
Meanwhile, the overall economic climate indicator edged up to 2.4 points in June from 2.3 points in May. Business sentiment rose in the manufacturing sector on more upbeat outlooks on demand and production, in the construction and public works sector on improved employment prospects, and in the services sector on more favorable business conditions in the past three months. Meanwhile, confidence stabilized in the trade sector.
Some panelists expect private consumption to grow 2.1% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.5% in 2020.
Panelists expect fixed investment to increase 5.3% in 2019, which is up 1.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.7% in 2020.
Consumers turned slightly more optimistic in June, with the consumer confidence index rising to minus 8.4 points from minus 9.0 points in May. A markedly less pessimistic outlook on the general economic situation in the next 12 months drove the improved reading. Households were also marginally more upbeat about their personal finances in the past year. On the downside, respondents were slightly more downbeat regarding their personal financial situation in the next 12 months and also showed less willingness to make major purchases over the coming year.
Meanwhile, the overall economic climate indicator edged up to 2.4 points in June from 2.3 points in May. Business sentiment rose in the manufacturing sector on more upbeat outlooks on demand and production, in the construction and public works sector on improved employment prospects, and in the services sector on more favorable business conditions in the past three months. Meanwhile, confidence stabilized in the trade sector.
Some panelists expect private consumption to grow 2.1% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.5% in 2020.
Panelists expect fixed investment to increase 5.3% in 2019, which is up 1.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.7% in 2020.
Portugal Economic Growth
The economy is seen losing pace this year owing to a less supportive external environment and softer growth in household spending amid a downturn in economic sentiment.
That said, the rollout of several delayed investment projects should cushion the slowdown in domestic demand.
I expect growth of 1.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.6% in 2020.
The economy is seen losing pace this year owing to a less supportive external environment and softer growth in household spending amid a downturn in economic sentiment.
That said, the rollout of several delayed investment projects should cushion the slowdown in domestic demand.
I expect growth of 1.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.6% in 2020.
Portugal Economic Outlook
The economy seems to have sustained momentum in the second quarter.
A faster upturn in retail sales, on average, in April–May signals a pick-up in private consumption growth amid less downbeat confidence among households in the quarter. In the same two months, construction activity gained traction, while the contraction of the industrial sector eased, mainly on a rebound in mining.
Meanwhile, export growth was up in April–May, chiefly on sales of transportation equipment, parts and accessories.
On the downside, tourism activity slowed in May and is set to weaken further if fuel-tanker drivers go on strike during the peak holiday season in August as has been threatened, while fuel shortages will disrupt wider economic activity.
In addition, there are signs that the labor market has maxed out, with the unemployment rate creeping up and employment growth slipping, which could thus curb consumption spending.
The economy seems to have sustained momentum in the second quarter.
A faster upturn in retail sales, on average, in April–May signals a pick-up in private consumption growth amid less downbeat confidence among households in the quarter. In the same two months, construction activity gained traction, while the contraction of the industrial sector eased, mainly on a rebound in mining.
Meanwhile, export growth was up in April–May, chiefly on sales of transportation equipment, parts and accessories.
On the downside, tourism activity slowed in May and is set to weaken further if fuel-tanker drivers go on strike during the peak holiday season in August as has been threatened, while fuel shortages will disrupt wider economic activity.
In addition, there are signs that the labor market has maxed out, with the unemployment rate creeping up and employment growth slipping, which could thus curb consumption spending.
| VARIAÇÕES HOMÓLOGAS | ||||||
| HOMOLOGOUS CHANGE | ||||||
| Empréstimos de Outras Instituições Financeiras Monetárias a Empresas Não Financeiras | ||||||
| Loans of Other Monetary Financial Institutions to Non-Financial Corporations | ||||||
| Milhões de Euros | ||||||
| Millions of Euros | ||||||
| Crédito Concedido | Cobrança Duvidosa | |||||
| Installment Credit | Uncertain Collection | |||||
| MAI.18 | 72.637 | 8.626 | ||||
| MAI.19 | 69.481 | -4,34% | 5.192 | -39,81% | ||
| Fonte: Boletim Estatístico do Banco de Portugal | ||||||
| Source: Portugal Central Bank | ||||||
| VARIAÇÕES HOMÓLOGAS | ||||||
| HOMOLOGOUS CHANGE | ||||||
| Empréstimos de Outras Instituições Financeiras Monetárias a Particulares | ||||||
| Loans of Other Monetary Financial Institutions to Private Individuals | ||||||
| Milhões de Euros | ||||||
| Millions of Euros | ||||||
| Crédito | Concedido | Cobrança Duvidosa | ||||
| Banking Credit | Installment Credit | Uncertain Collection | ||||
| Habitação | MAI.18 | 92.830 | 1.999 | |||
| Mortgage | MAI.19 | 92.869 | 0,04% | 1.264 | -36,77% | |
| Consumo | MAI.18 | 14.385 | 673 | |||
| Consumption | MAI.19 | 15.586 | 8,35% | 605 | -10,10% | |
| Outros Fins | MAI.18 | 7.679 | 1.630 | |||
| Another Finality | MAI.19 | 6.761 | -11,95% | 1.159 | -28,90% | |
| Total | MAI.18 | 114.893 | 4.301 | |||
| Total | MAI.19 | 115.216 | 0,28% | 3.028 | -29,60% | |
| Fonte: Boletim Estatístico do Banco de Portugal | ||||||
| Source: Portugal Central Bank | ||||||
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