Portugal Economic Outlook
The economy has a spring in its step, with both consumer confidence and the economic climate indicator rising in June to their highest levels in well over a decade.
In addition, the unemployment rate dropped in May, and is now almost half that reached during the depths of the crisis, while industrial production rose in the same month.
This comes after the quickest growth in seven years in Q1 due to a dynamic export sector, booming tourism and greater domestic investment.
After the EU recommended that Portugal leave the Excessive Deficit Procedure earlier this year, the strong economic performance should help the government come close to meeting its 2017 budget deficit target, which would help trim the onerous public debt burden.
In this regard, the significant decline in bond yields this year, if lasting, should provide a helping hand.
Consultoria, aconselhamento e esclarecimento no Endividamento das Famílias e das Empresas não Financeiras. Consultadoria Estratégica Económica, Financeira e Bancária. Indebteness Consultancy for Family's and Enterprises. General Banking, Economics and Financial Strategic Consultancy.
terça-feira, 29 de agosto de 2017
Portugal Economy Data
quinta-feira, 3 de agosto de 2017
terça-feira, 1 de agosto de 2017
Portugal Economic News
Portugal Economic Growth
Growth will accelerate this year on the back of strong investment, particularly in the construction sector, and solid private consumption. In addition, the external sector will be boosted by buoyant demand in the Euro area and greater tourist inflows. However, high public debt and a vulnerable financial sector will continue to weigh on growth prospects. Our analysts expect GDP to expand 2.4% in 2017, up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 1.8% in 2018.
Consumer confidence and economic climate indicator increase again.
The survey of consumer sentiment produced by the National Statistical Institute (INE) showed that consumer confidence soared from 0.2 points in April to 1.7 points in May, the highest figure in nigh on 20 years. May’s significant uptick was driven by improvements in consumers’ perceptions of the general economic situation in the country and unemployment over the next 12 months. In contrast, consumers grew slightly more negative regarding savings and their personal financial situation over the next year.
The Institute’s overall economic climate indicator ticked up from 1.8 points in April to 2.0 points in May. May’s rise was underpinned by improved business sentiment in the services and construction and public works sectors. Sentiment was constant in the manufacturing sector and dipped marginally in the trade sector. The positive figures for business and consumer confidence show that the economy continues to gain momentum, after recently released GDP data for Q1 showing growth was the fastest in well over a decade.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 1.9% in 2017, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2018, the panel foresees the economy growing 1.5%.
Industrial production rises in May on a yearly basis
In May, industrial production rose 2.4% year-on-year, contrasting April’s 1.2% fall. May’s figure was underpinned by expansions in the manufacturing and electricity, gas and water sectors, while the mining sector contracted compared to the same period of the prior year.
On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, in May industrial production rose 0.4%, up from April’s 0.2%. Annual average growth in industrial production was 1.5% in May, up from April’s 1.2%.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to rise 1.7% this year and 1.6% in 2018.
Growth will accelerate this year on the back of strong investment, particularly in the construction sector, and solid private consumption. In addition, the external sector will be boosted by buoyant demand in the Euro area and greater tourist inflows. However, high public debt and a vulnerable financial sector will continue to weigh on growth prospects. Our analysts expect GDP to expand 2.4% in 2017, up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 1.8% in 2018.
Consumer confidence and economic climate indicator increase again.
The survey of consumer sentiment produced by the National Statistical Institute (INE) showed that consumer confidence soared from 0.2 points in April to 1.7 points in May, the highest figure in nigh on 20 years. May’s significant uptick was driven by improvements in consumers’ perceptions of the general economic situation in the country and unemployment over the next 12 months. In contrast, consumers grew slightly more negative regarding savings and their personal financial situation over the next year.
The Institute’s overall economic climate indicator ticked up from 1.8 points in April to 2.0 points in May. May’s rise was underpinned by improved business sentiment in the services and construction and public works sectors. Sentiment was constant in the manufacturing sector and dipped marginally in the trade sector. The positive figures for business and consumer confidence show that the economy continues to gain momentum, after recently released GDP data for Q1 showing growth was the fastest in well over a decade.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 1.9% in 2017, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2018, the panel foresees the economy growing 1.5%.
Industrial production rises in May on a yearly basis
In May, industrial production rose 2.4% year-on-year, contrasting April’s 1.2% fall. May’s figure was underpinned by expansions in the manufacturing and electricity, gas and water sectors, while the mining sector contracted compared to the same period of the prior year.
On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, in May industrial production rose 0.4%, up from April’s 0.2%. Annual average growth in industrial production was 1.5% in May, up from April’s 1.2%.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to rise 1.7% this year and 1.6% in 2018.
Portugal Economic Growth
Growth will accelerate this year on the back of strong investment, particularly in the construction sector, and solid private consumption.
In addition, the external sector will be boosted by buoyant demand in the Euro area and greater tourist inflows.
However, high public debt and a vulnerable financial sector will continue to weigh on growth prospects. Our analysts expect GDP to expand 2.4% in 2017, up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 1.8% in 2018.
Growth will accelerate this year on the back of strong investment, particularly in the construction sector, and solid private consumption.
In addition, the external sector will be boosted by buoyant demand in the Euro area and greater tourist inflows.
However, high public debt and a vulnerable financial sector will continue to weigh on growth prospects. Our analysts expect GDP to expand 2.4% in 2017, up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 1.8% in 2018.
Portugal Economic Outlook
The economy has a spring in its step, with both consumer confidence and the economic climate indicator rising in June to their highest levels in well over a decade. In addition, the unemployment rate dropped in May, and is now almost half that reached during the depths of the crisis, while industrial production rose in the same month.
This comes after the quickest growth in seven years in Q1 due to a dynamic export sector, booming tourism and greater domestic investment.
After the EU recommended that Portugal leave the Excessive Deficit Procedure earlier this year, the strong economic performance should help the government come close to meeting its 2017 budget deficit target, which would help trim the onerous public debt burden.
In this regard, the significant decline in bond yields this year, if lasting, should provide a helping hand.
The economy has a spring in its step, with both consumer confidence and the economic climate indicator rising in June to their highest levels in well over a decade. In addition, the unemployment rate dropped in May, and is now almost half that reached during the depths of the crisis, while industrial production rose in the same month.
This comes after the quickest growth in seven years in Q1 due to a dynamic export sector, booming tourism and greater domestic investment.
After the EU recommended that Portugal leave the Excessive Deficit Procedure earlier this year, the strong economic performance should help the government come close to meeting its 2017 budget deficit target, which would help trim the onerous public debt burden.
In this regard, the significant decline in bond yields this year, if lasting, should provide a helping hand.
Portugal Economy Data
| VARIAÇÕES HOMÓLOGAS | ||||||
| HOMOLOGOUS CHANGE | ||||||
| Empréstimos de Outras Instituições Financeiras Monetárias a Particulares | ||||||
| Loans of Other Monetary Financial Institutions to Private Individuals | ||||||
| Milhões de Euros | ||||||
| Millions of Euros | ||||||
| Crédito | Concedido | Cobrança Duvidosa | ||||
| Banking Credit | Installment Credit | Uncertain Collection | ||||
| Habitação | ABR.16 | 96.820 | 2.543 | |||
| Mortgage | ABR.17 | 94.014 | 2.132 | -16,16% | ||
| Consumo | ABR.16 | 12.213 | 1.049 | |||
| Consumption | ABR.17 | 13.813 | 13,10% | 767 | -26,88% | |
| Outros Fins | ABR.16 | 9.411 | 1.450 | |||
| Another Finality | ABR.17 | 8.626 | -8,34% | 1.875 | 29,31% | |
| Total | ABR.16 | 118.444 | 5.042 | |||
| Total | ABR.17 | 116.454 | -1,68% | 4.774 | -5,32% | |
| Fonte: Boletim Estatístico do Banco de Portugal | ||||||
| Source: Portugal Central Bank | ||||||
| VARIAÇÕES HOMÓLOGAS | ||||||
| HOMOLOGOUS CHANGE | ||||||
| Empréstimos de Outras Instituições Financeiras Monetárias a Empresas Não Financeiras | ||||||
| Loans of Other Monetary Financial Institutions to Non-Financial Corporations | ||||||
| Milhões de Euros | ||||||
| Millions of Euros | ||||||
| Crédito Concedido | Cobrança Duvidosa | |||||
| Installment Credit | Uncertain Collection | |||||
| ABR.16 | 80.616 | 12.964 | ||||
| ABR.17 | 74.715 | -7,32% | 11.050 | -14,76% | ||
| Fonte: Boletim Estatístico do Banco de Portugal | ||||||
| Source: Portugal Central Bank | ||||||
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