Endividamento - Antonio Gaspar

Portugal Economic Outlook

The economy has a spring in its step, with both consumer confidence and the economic climate indicator rising in June to their highest levels in well over a decade. In addition, the unemployment rate dropped in May, and is now almost half that reached during the depths of the crisis, while industrial production rose in the same month.
This comes after the quickest growth in seven years in Q1 due to a dynamic export sector, booming tourism and greater domestic investment.
After the EU recommended that Portugal leave the Excessive Deficit Procedure earlier this year, the strong economic performance should help the government come close to meeting its 2017 budget deficit target, which would help trim the onerous public debt burden.
In this regard, the significant decline in bond yields this year, if lasting, should provide a helping hand.

Portugal Economy Data

	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Population (million)	10.6	10.5	10.5	10.4	10.4
GDP per capita (EUR)	16,686	16,015	16,283	16,641	17,241
GDP (EUR bn)	176	168	170	173	180
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	-1.8	-4.0	-1.1	0.9	1.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)	-3.7	-5.7	-1.3	2.3	2.6
Investment (annual variation in %)	-12.5	-16.6	-5.1	2.3	4.5
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)	7.0	3.4	7.0	4.3	6.1
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)	-5.8	-6.3	4.7	7.8	8.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	-0.9	-6.1	0.4	1.6	1.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)	-8.0	-5.8	-1.5	1.1	1.7
Unemployment Rate	12.9	15.8	16.5	14.1	12.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-7.4	-5.7	-4.8	-7.2	-4.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)	111	126	129	131	129
Money (annual variation in %)	-1.1	-7.5	1.9	0.9	4.4
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)	3.5	2.1	0.2	-0.3	0.3
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)	3.6	2.8	0.4	-0.2	0.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)	6.4	3.7	-0.5	-1.8	-
Policy Interest Rate (%)	1.00	0.75	0.25	0.05	-
Stock Market (annual variation in %)	-27.6	2.9	16.0	-26.8	-
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	1.30	1.32	1.38	1.21	-
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	1.39	1.29	1.33	1.33	-
Current Account (% of GDP)	-6.0	-1.8	1.6	0.1	0.1
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)	-10.6	-3.0	2.7	0.1	0.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)	-16.4	-11.0	-9.6	-11.0	-10.5