CONSELHO CONSULTIVO - 20.DEZ

                       Conselho Consultivo - 20.DEZ


                            ETV - Diário Económico


http://www.youtube.com/economicotv#p/u/1/DFEYtkZ60eI

Crédito Concedido/Crédito de Cobrança Duvidosa - Particulares - Variação Mensal

Empréstimos de Outras Instituições Financeiras Monetárias a Particulares
Loans of Other Monetary Financial Institutions to Private Individuals
Crédito		Concedido		Cobrança Duvidosa
Banking Credit	Installment Credit			Uncertain Collection
Habitação	SET.11	113755		2090
Mortgage	OUT.11	113498	-0,23%	2101	0,53%
Consumo	SET.11	14976		1381
Consumption	OUT.11	15125	0,99%	1476	6,88%
Outros Fins	SET.11	11758		1090
Another Finality	OUT.11	11771	0,11%	1118	2,57%
Total	SET.11	140490		4561
Total	OUT.11	140394	-0,07%	4695	2,94%
Fonte: Boletim Estatístico do Banco de Portugal
Source: Portugal Central Bank

Carta de Intenções enviada ao FMI por Portugal - 9.DEZ.11 - Ministro das Finanças e Governador do Banco de Portugal

                                 PORTUGAL: LETTER OF INTENT


Lisbon, December 9, 2011 


Ms. Christine Lagarde                                                     
Managing Director 
International Monetary Fund 
Washington, DC 20431 


                   Dear Ms. Lagarde: 


       1. In the attached update to the earlier Memoranda of Economic and Financial Policies 
(MEFPs), we describe progress and additional policy steps towards meeting the objectives of 
the economic program of the Portuguese government which is being supported by an 
Extended Arrangement. 
       2.Policy implementation is broadly on track. In particular, we believe that the recent 
adoption of a bold and comprehensive 2012 budget will decisively set public finances on a 
sustainable path and bolster market confidence in our program. All the quarterly quantitative 
performance criteria for the second review were met, along with the continuous criterion on 
external arrears. However, our end-September indicative target on the non-accumulation of 
new domestic arrears by the general government was breached. As a corrective measure, to 
avoid further arrears accumulation, we are strengthening commitment controls and ensuring 
adequate budgetary allocations to the health sector.  
      3.Expenditure overruns and the materialization of fiscal risks have complicated the 
attainment of end-2011 fiscal deficit target. However, we intend to meet the target through a 
partial transfer of bank pension funds to the social security system—a one-off revenue item. 
      4.Fiscal-structural reform is addressing deep-seated problems with expenditure control. 
To this end, we are strengthening public financial management, halting new PPP contracts, 
fundamentally restructuring the SOE sector and limiting its capacity to incur further market 
debt, and reforming revenue administration and the health sector. We are also revising our 
inter-governmental fiscal framework to enhance fiscal responsibility. We will require a 
statement of affairs for Madeira ahead of a financial arrangement with the region.  
      5.Our policy efforts to support financial system stability continue. Bank deleveraging is 
progressing, and we will continue to ensure that their plans provide a level of credit 
consistent with the program’s macroeconomic framework. The legal framework for 
temporary capital increase of viable banks will be significantly improved by early 2012 with 
a view to ensuring financial stability while protecting tax payers. The structural benchmark 
on amending legislation to strengthen the early intervention framework and adopting the new 
bank resolution framework will be met by year-end.2 
      6.Our ambitious structural reform agenda to foster higher and sustainable growth is on 
track, although we did not implement a fiscal devaluation given the large fiscal 
consolidation. We are working to give firms the flexibility to respond to changing demand 
conditions without disruptive changes in employment, which is particularly important at this 
point in the economic cycle. We are continuing to advance legislation and practices to 
enhance the competition framework and facilitate market entry.  
      7.On the basis of the policies defined in this letter, we request completion of the second 
review under the Extended Arrangement, and the third purchase under the arrangement in the 
amount of SDR 2,425 million. The attached MEFP proposes new structural benchmarks 
relating to the fiscal area (reforming the regional finance law, assessing PPPs, and priority 
elements of SOE restructuring plans), structural reform (developing a proposal to correct 
excessive rents in energy markets), the banking sector (the rules governing the provision of 
public capital to banks), and the judicial process. 
      8.We remain confident that the policies described in the current and previous MEFPs 
are adequate to achieve the objectives under the program. We stand ready to take additional 
measures that may be needed to meet the objectives of the economic program and will 
consult with the IMF, the European Commission, and the ECB, in advance of any necessary 
revisions to the policies contained in this letter and attached Memorandum.  
     9.This letter is copied to Messrs. Juncker, Rehn, and Draghi. 


     Sincerely yours,  
  
             Vítor Gaspar                                       Carlos da Silva Costa 
Minister of State and Finance              Governor of the Banco de Portugal 

IMF Completes Second Review Under an EFF with Portugal, Approves €2.9 Billion Disbursement

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today completed the second review of Portugal’s performance under an economic program supported by a 3-year, SDR 23.742 billion (about €28.0 billion) Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The completion of the review enables the immediate disbursement of an amount equivalent to SDR 2.425 billion (about €2.9 billion), bringing total disbursements under the EFF to SDR 11.503 billion (about €13.6 billion).

The EFF, which was approved on May 20, 2011 is part of a cooperative package of financing with the European Union amounting to €78 billion over three years. It entails exceptional access to IMF resources, amounting to 2,306 percent of Portugal’s IMF quota, and was approved under the IMF's fast-track Emergency Financing Mechanism procedures

Following the Executive Board's discussion, Mr. David Lipton, First Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, said:

“Good progress has been achieved so far on policy implementation, but given the strong headwinds from the deteriorating external environment, perseverance and determination to implement the ambitious fiscal program and push through tough, but essential, structural reforms will be critical, along with continued European support.

“The strong 2012 budget and its focus on expenditure cuts are welcome. While the fiscal slippages in 2011 have prompted the use of banks’ pension fund assets to cover the gap, the bold and concrete measures included in the budget should help achieve the ambitious 2012 fiscal targets.

“The authorities’ fiscal plans are firmly rooted in an integrated framework, which explicitly recognizes and addresses the contribution of state-owned enterprises, public-private partnerships, and regional and local governments to current fiscal pressures. Control over spending commitments—which is being strengthened in the context of ongoing fiscal structural reforms—will be important for meeting the targets.

“The environment facing banks is challenging, not least due to the need for raising new capital to comply with the new safeguards required by EBA. Despite banks’ strong efforts to increase capital from private sources, state support for bank recapitalization may be needed. It will be important to ensure that the forthcoming rules governing such support allow banks to remain managed on a commercial basis. In light of the fiscal contraction and much weaker external demand, it is even more critical to ensure that bank deleveraging does not come at the cost of excessive contraction in credit to dynamic enterprises.

“Structural reforms are progressing, and the strong efforts made in areas such as labor markets and competition framework should continue, as these reforms will, over time, place downward pressure on relative prices. The decision to not implement a fiscal devaluation creates a considerable gap in the structural reform agenda that needs to be filled with alternative measures to strengthen competitiveness. In this regard, the authorities’ commitment, in consultation with stakeholders, to enhance the depth and focus of the reform agenda at the time of the next review is a welcome step.”

Conselho Consultivo - 6.DEZ.11 - ETV

CONSELHO CONSULTIVO - ETV - Diário Económico
                        6.DEZ.11

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFr37Jm7Ny4

ESPERTEZA DO COSTUME

Artigo de Opinião do autor - Diário Económico
                  5/NOV.11


http://economico.sapo.pt/noticias/esperteza-do-costume_132961.html

Conselho Consultivo - 29.NOV.11 - ETV

Conselho Consultivo - 29.NOV.11 - ETV - Diário Económico


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PMLEKjsG68

CRÉDITO CONCEDIDO/CRÉDITO DE COBRANÇA DUVIDOSA - Particulares - Variação Mensal

Empréstimos de Outras Instituições Financeiras Monetárias a Particulares
Loans of Other Monetary Financial Institutions to Private Individuals
Crédito		Concedido		Cobrança Duvidosa
Banking Credit	Installment Credit			Uncertain Collection
Habitação	AGO.11	113923		2057
Mortgage	SET.11	113755	-0,15%	2090	1,60%
Consumo	AGO.11	15024		1393
Consumption	SET.11	14976	-0,32%	1381	-0,86%
Outros Fins	AGO.11	11870		1067
Another Finality	SET.11	11758	-0,94%	1090	2,16%
Total	AGO.11	140817		4517
Total	SET.11	140490	-0,23%	4561	0,97%
Fonte: Boletim Estatístico do Banco de Portugal
Source: Portugal Central Bank

Conselho Consultivo - 22.NOV.11 - ETV

Conselho Consultivo - 22.NOV.11 - ETV - Diário Económico

http://www.youtube.com/user/economicotv#p/u/7/xG3SgHNQibw

Statement by the EC, ECB, and IMF on the Second Review Mission to Portugal

Staff teams from the European Commission (EC), European Central Bank (ECB), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) visited Lisbon during November 7–16 for the second quarterly review of Portugal’s economic program. The mission has reached staff-level agreement on economic and financial policies to meet the program’s objectives. Strict implementation of these policies will be needed to restore external competitiveness, bolster confidence in the sustainability of public finances, and maintain financial stability while ensuring adequate credit in support of sustainable growth.

Growth in 2011 is likely to be somewhat better than foreseen in the program, but the recession in 2012 is now projected to be more pronounced, with GDP expected to contract by 3 percent and risks to the outlook tilted to the downside. From the external side, global headwinds are hampering exports, while, on the internal side, the fiscal consolidation measures in the 2012 budget, tighter credit and financial market conditions, and weaker confidence are dampening domestic demand. Consumer price inflation will remain elevated, reflecting significant indirect tax and tariff increases. The economy is expected to recover, albeit at a gradual pace, in 2013.

Implementation of the 2011 budget has proven difficult. While preliminary data indicate that the end-September ceiling on the cash deficit was met, spending overruns relative to program objectives for the whole year could add up to 1½ percent of GDP on an accrual basis. These unexpected budget pressures reflect in large part slippages in expenditure controls and insufficient corrective measures. Against this backdrop, the government is seeking to negotiate a voluntary agreement with the major banks to transfer part of the assets and liabilities of these banks’ pension funds to the social security system, so as to allow meeting the 2011 fiscal deficit target of 5.9 percent of GDP.

The 2012 budget includes bold and welcome measures to bring the fiscal program back on track. In the mission’s assessment, it is consistent with meeting the ambitious fiscal target of 4.5 percent of GDP in 2012. Moreover, key measures, particularly nominal cuts in public wages and pensions and increases in indirect taxes, are also appropriate in view of the need to switch from a consumption-based to a more export-led growth model. But implementation of the 2012 budget will need to be accompanied by flanking measures to address still rising spending arrears and to reduce other fiscal risks, particularly at the level of local and regional governments and the state-owned enterprises. In this context, the envisaged adjustment program for the troubled autonomous region of Madeira will provide an opportunity to signal that errant fiscal behavior at the regional and local levels will no longer be tolerated.

Portugal’s major banks are facing fresh challenges to strengthen their capital positions. The authorities are putting in place the rules that will regulate the temporary use of public funds for recapitalizing banks. These rules will need to respect the interests of tax payers, preserve the stability of the banking system, and comply with European Union state aid rules. A balanced and orderly deleveraging of the banking sector over the medium term will allow banks to address their funding imbalances, while safeguarding adequate credit to the more productive sectors of the economy.

Overall, the program is off to a good start. However, its success crucially depends on continued implementation of a wide range of structural reforms that will remove the rigidities and bottlenecks behind Portugal’s decade-long growth stagnation. In order to improve labor cost competitiveness, wages in the private sector should follow the lead taken by the public sector in implementing sustained pay cuts. The program envisages measures to reduce dismissal costs and increase wage flexibility at the firm-level. As for tackling entrenched practices that distort competition, a strengthening of the competition framework is underway and progress has been made on liberalizing the telecommunication markets. Nevertheless, more progress on curbing rent-seeking in sheltered sectors, particularly energy and regulated professions, is needed. The mission agrees with the authorities that a fresh and determined effort is required to re-invigorate the structural reform agenda in scope, focus, and specificity.

The government’s program is supported by loans from the European Union amounting to €52 billion and a €26 billion Extended Fund Facility with the IMF. Approval of the conclusion of this review will allow the disbursement of €8 billion (€5.3 billion by the EU, and €2.7 billion by the IMF). These disbursements could take place in December and January subject to the approval of the IMF Executive Board and ECOFIN and EUROGROUP. The joint mission for the next program review is expected to take place in February 2012.

PASSOS A DAR

Artigo de Opinião do autor - Diário Económico - 9.NOV.11

http://economico.sapo.pt/noticias/passos-a-dar_130893.html

How to Reduce Debt – Debt Reduction Snowball Method

There are several different methods that you can take advantage of when it comes to paying off your debt. However, some can be a little harder to do than others. The best way to determine the best method for you to utilize is looking into the various methods and figuring out which method is going to best meet your individual needs.

A very popular way to begin cutting down on your monthly debt is called the Snowball Method. For the most part this is a fairly simple way to begin watching your debt go away. In this method you take all of your monthly expenses and payoff the lowest amount you owe to a creditor first. This can take a little time depending on your income. What you need to do is add as much extra into this payment as you possibly can. After the first one is completely paid off go to the next lowest debt and repeat until all of the debts are paid off.

Generally it does not take a long time to begin to see the light at the end of the tunnel, however the amount of debt that you have is going to determine how long it takes for you to be able to reach that light. In general, you should begin seeing a change in your financial dent in a short period of time. As you begin to pay off the debts you have acquired you can then start to breathe again and divide your extra income into larger payments toward debt until all of your debt is paid off.

The only real drawback to taking advantage of this method is you will still have interest charges to pay every month. The way the interest on each of your accounts owed is going to determine the amount of money that will be paid in the interest. For example, if you have the same interest rate on a higher bill as you do on the lower bill, you are spending more by paying off the smaller debt than the larger debt. In these cases if possible you might want to payoff some of the higher amounts first.

By switching things around to better work for your individual needs is going to be your best option. Looking closely at what you owe and the interest rate on each bill is going to help you to determine the debt that will need to be paid off first. This is not always an easy plan to stick with, especially if the largest debt is overwhelming, it just might seem as if you are not gaining any ground over the debt. Be patient and hold on, in due time you will be back on your feet.

As long as you can maintain your budget you can rest assured that your financial freedom should be nearing you. Your hard work and discipline will soon be rewarded in a way that you can be proud of. Be sure that you learn from any spending mistakes you have made, do not repeat them.

IMPERDOÁVEL

Artigo de Opinião do autor - Diário Económico - 27.OUT.11

http://economico.sapo.pt/noticias/imperdoavel_129930.html

O “Credito Malparado” continua imparável!

O Boletim Estatístico do Banco de Portugal que ontem foi divulgado, não deixa dúvidas relativamente ao que venho anunciando há mais de um ano – o Crédito de Cobrança Duvidosa ou Malparado, continua a crescer e com ritmos verdadeiramente assustadores.

Os dados agora disponibilizados respeitam ao passado mês de Agosto (sem o efeito das medidas de austeridade há pouco anunciadas para 2012 e 2013, e o comportamento foi aquele que se pode observar do Quadro abaixo.

Enquanto o Crédito Concedido Total a Particulares regrediu 0,31%, o Crédito de Cobrança Duvidosa para o mesmo agregado cresceu 3,10%, isto nas comparações mensais Julho/Agosto. Se observarmos as comparações homólogas, os dados registados foram respectivamente, de um crescimento de 0,12% no Crédito Concedido Total e um crescimento Total no Crédito de Cobrança Duvidosa de 9,77%!

Mas, e infelizmente, a situação continuar-se-á a degradar ao longo destes próximos dois anos.

Às causas mais próximas do incumprimento contratual: contas mal feitas ou não feitas e aos 3 D’s (Desemprego, Divórcio e Doença), temos agora que acrescentar mais um D – o de Desespero.

Deixo aqui um conselho para os cidadãos portugueses: tentem poupar o máximo que possam; reduzam as suas despesas ao mínimo e estritamente necessário, porque os tempos vindouros serão muito, muito difíceis, e nada como uma boa atitude profiláctica, para evitar os efeitos directos ou colaterais duma exposição ao crédito, de todo desaconselhada.

Crédito Concedido/Crédito de Cobrança Duvidosa - PARTICULARES - Variação Mensal

Empréstimos de Outras Instituições Financeiras Monetárias a Particulares
Loans of Other Monetary Financial Institutions to Private Individuals
Crédito		Concedido		Cobrança Duvidosa
Banking Credit	Installment Credit			Uncertain Collection
Habitação	JUL.11	114141		2023
Mortgage	AGO.11	113923	-0,19%	2057	1,68%
Consumo	JUL.11	15139		1348
Consumption	AGO.11	15024	-0,76%	1393	3,34%
Outros Fins	JUL.11	11969		1010
Another Finality	AGO.11	11870	-0,83%	1067	5,64%
Total	JUL.11	141249		4381
Total	AGO.11	140817	-0,31%	4517	3,10%
Fonte: Boletim Estatístico do Banco de Portugal
Source: Portugal Central Bank

O JUIZO FINAL

Artigo de opinião do autor, no Diário Económico - 18.OUT.11

http://economico.sapo.pt/noticias/o-juizo-final_129400.html

Crédito Concedido/Crédito de Cobrança Duvidosa - PARTICULARES - Variação Mensal

Empréstimos de Outras Instituições Financeiras Monetárias a Particulares
Loans of Other Monetary Financial Institutions to Private Individuals
Crédito		Concedido		Cobrança Duvidosa
Banking Credit	Installment Credit			Uncertain Collection
Habitação	JUN.11	114285		1992
Mortgage	JUL.11	114141	-0,13%	2023	1,56%
Consumo	JUN.11	15270		1356
Consumption	JUN.11	15139	-0,86%	1348	-0,59%
Outros Fins	JUN.11	12020		969
Another Finality	JUL.11	11969	-0,42%	1010	4,23%
Total	JUN.11	141575		4317
Total	JUL.11	141249	-0,23%	4381	1,48%
Fonte: Boletim Estatístico do Banco de Portugal
Source: Portugal Central Bank