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Consultoria, aconselhamento e esclarecimento no Endividamento das Famílias e das Empresas não Financeiras. Consultadoria Estratégica Económica, Financeira e Bancária. Indebteness Consultancy for Family's and Enterprises. General Banking, Economics and Financial Strategic Consultancy.
terça-feira, 11 de outubro de 2016
segunda-feira, 26 de setembro de 2016
IMF Executive Board Concludes 2016 Article IV Consultation with Portugal
On September 16, 2016, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV Consultation and Fourth Post-Program Monitoring with Portugal.
The economic recovery in Portugal is losing momentum. The slowdown in economic activity that began in the second half of 2015 has persisted, despite still-favorable cyclical tailwinds and supportive macroeconomic policy settings. The fiscal loosening in place since last year and the ECB’s appropriately supportive monetary policy stance have translated into robust consumption growth. However, overall GDP growth is being held back by weaker export growth and sluggish investment, with the latter being weighed down by uncertainty, high levels of corporate debt, and still-pronounced structural bottlenecks. Accordingly, output is expected to increase by only 1.0 percent in 2016.
Executive Board Assessment
The Executive Directors welcomed that Portugal has achieved a major economic turnaround since the onset of the sovereign debt crisis, as market access has been restored, fiscal and current account balances have improved, and unemployment, though still high, has fallen substantially. Directors noted, however, that notwithstanding the progress, the recovery is moderating and risks are tilted to the downside. The slowdown in economic activity, together with banking sector vulnerabilities and high public debt, poses challenges. Directors welcomed the authorities’ commitment to address these weaknesses and emphasized that a concerted policy effort, including decisive fiscal adjustment, improvement in banks’ governance, and implementation of key structural reforms, will be critical to strengthening Portugal’s macroeconomic position.
While noting that sovereign financing conditions are subject to global developments, Directors welcomed the staff’s assessment that risks to Portugal’s capacity to repay the Fund remain manageable. In view of the authorities’ intention to repay the Fund early, they underscored the importance of maintaining adequate cash buffers.
Directors considered the 2016 budget deficit target, 2.2 percent of GDP, to be appropriately ambitious, yet noted the difficulties in achieving this target given declining GDP growth and emerging expenditure pressures. They encouraged the authorities to pursue a well‑specified adjustment path, focused largely on expenditure, that balances the need to put debt on a firmly downward trajectory while supporting growth. Directors called for a comprehensive spending review, aiming particularly at better means‑testing of social benefits and controlling pensions and public sector wages. They also highlighted that tax policy should be more stable and predictable and designed to boost competitiveness and growth.
Directors emphasized that addressing banking sector vulnerabilities should be a top priority. They agreed that to return to profitability and successfully finance economic growth, banks should clean up their balance sheets, including through the tackling of nonperforming loans, supported by an increase in capital and provisions. Directors noted that banks should also reduce operating costs and improve their internal governance to let lending decisions be guided solely by commercial criteria. They also saw merit in finding national‑level solutions to the challenges facing Portuguese banks, using the existing regulatory toolkit.
Directors emphasized that pushing ahead with structural reforms remains critical to enhancing competitiveness and promoting growth. They encouraged the authorities to fully implement the already‑enacted reforms in labor and product markets, with a particular focus on streamlining the functioning of the public sector and limiting energy costs. To support implementation of these reforms, Directors encouraged the authorities to engage all stakeholders by means of an inclusive social dialogue.
Directors welcomed the ex post evaluation of exceptional access under the 2011–14 Extended Fund Facility. The program was a qualified success, given that it helped stabilize the Portuguese economy, but concerns about debt levels remain. Directors generally agreed that the pace of fiscal adjustment had been appropriate; that treating banks as going concerns had been justified in the absence of a banking crisis; and that sovereign debt restructuring had not been a realistic option during the program. Directors pointed to the need for realistic projections and targets, noting in this respect the limits to protecting growth in the face of necessary adjustment. Looking forward, Directors emphasized in particular: the need to develop program modalities and a toolkit for effective adjustment through internal devaluation; the importance of strong forward‑looking banking supervision and a proactive approach to private sector deleveraging; the need to handle effectively legal constraints in program design; and the key role of country ownership in all branches of government to enable and sustain reforms.
Directors recognized the determinative role of EU support in Portugal’s recovery and current stability. For the effective design of future Fund programs with members of currency unions, most Directors considered that high priority should be put on clarifying options for union‑level conditionality, and for instruments to ensure that member countries’ program goals can be met in the face of asymmetric shocks not easily resolved by union‑wide monetary policy.
On September 16, 2016, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV Consultation and Fourth Post-Program Monitoring with Portugal.
The economic recovery in Portugal is losing momentum. The slowdown in economic activity that began in the second half of 2015 has persisted, despite still-favorable cyclical tailwinds and supportive macroeconomic policy settings. The fiscal loosening in place since last year and the ECB’s appropriately supportive monetary policy stance have translated into robust consumption growth. However, overall GDP growth is being held back by weaker export growth and sluggish investment, with the latter being weighed down by uncertainty, high levels of corporate debt, and still-pronounced structural bottlenecks. Accordingly, output is expected to increase by only 1.0 percent in 2016.
Executive Board Assessment
The Executive Directors welcomed that Portugal has achieved a major economic turnaround since the onset of the sovereign debt crisis, as market access has been restored, fiscal and current account balances have improved, and unemployment, though still high, has fallen substantially. Directors noted, however, that notwithstanding the progress, the recovery is moderating and risks are tilted to the downside. The slowdown in economic activity, together with banking sector vulnerabilities and high public debt, poses challenges. Directors welcomed the authorities’ commitment to address these weaknesses and emphasized that a concerted policy effort, including decisive fiscal adjustment, improvement in banks’ governance, and implementation of key structural reforms, will be critical to strengthening Portugal’s macroeconomic position.
While noting that sovereign financing conditions are subject to global developments, Directors welcomed the staff’s assessment that risks to Portugal’s capacity to repay the Fund remain manageable. In view of the authorities’ intention to repay the Fund early, they underscored the importance of maintaining adequate cash buffers.
Directors considered the 2016 budget deficit target, 2.2 percent of GDP, to be appropriately ambitious, yet noted the difficulties in achieving this target given declining GDP growth and emerging expenditure pressures. They encouraged the authorities to pursue a well‑specified adjustment path, focused largely on expenditure, that balances the need to put debt on a firmly downward trajectory while supporting growth. Directors called for a comprehensive spending review, aiming particularly at better means‑testing of social benefits and controlling pensions and public sector wages. They also highlighted that tax policy should be more stable and predictable and designed to boost competitiveness and growth.
Directors emphasized that addressing banking sector vulnerabilities should be a top priority. They agreed that to return to profitability and successfully finance economic growth, banks should clean up their balance sheets, including through the tackling of nonperforming loans, supported by an increase in capital and provisions. Directors noted that banks should also reduce operating costs and improve their internal governance to let lending decisions be guided solely by commercial criteria. They also saw merit in finding national‑level solutions to the challenges facing Portuguese banks, using the existing regulatory toolkit.
Directors emphasized that pushing ahead with structural reforms remains critical to enhancing competitiveness and promoting growth. They encouraged the authorities to fully implement the already‑enacted reforms in labor and product markets, with a particular focus on streamlining the functioning of the public sector and limiting energy costs. To support implementation of these reforms, Directors encouraged the authorities to engage all stakeholders by means of an inclusive social dialogue.
Directors welcomed the ex post evaluation of exceptional access under the 2011–14 Extended Fund Facility. The program was a qualified success, given that it helped stabilize the Portuguese economy, but concerns about debt levels remain. Directors generally agreed that the pace of fiscal adjustment had been appropriate; that treating banks as going concerns had been justified in the absence of a banking crisis; and that sovereign debt restructuring had not been a realistic option during the program. Directors pointed to the need for realistic projections and targets, noting in this respect the limits to protecting growth in the face of necessary adjustment. Looking forward, Directors emphasized in particular: the need to develop program modalities and a toolkit for effective adjustment through internal devaluation; the importance of strong forward‑looking banking supervision and a proactive approach to private sector deleveraging; the need to handle effectively legal constraints in program design; and the key role of country ownership in all branches of government to enable and sustain reforms.
Directors recognized the determinative role of EU support in Portugal’s recovery and current stability. For the effective design of future Fund programs with members of currency unions, most Directors considered that high priority should be put on clarifying options for union‑level conditionality, and for instruments to ensure that member countries’ program goals can be met in the face of asymmetric shocks not easily resolved by union‑wide monetary policy.
Portugal: Selected Economic Indicators
(Year-on-year percent change, unless otherwise indicated)
(Year-on-year percent change, unless otherwise indicated)
| Projections | |||||||
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | ||||
| Real GDP | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | |||
| Private consumption | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | |||
| Public consumption | -0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.6 | |||
| Gross fixed capital formation | 2.8 | 4.1 | -1.2 | 2.0 | |||
| Exports | 3.9 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 3.4 | |||
| Imports | 7.2 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 3.8 | |||
| Contribution to growth (Percentage points) | |||||||
| Total domestic demand | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | |||
| Foreign balance | -1.3 | -1.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | |||
| Resource utilization | |||||||
| Employment | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | |||
| Unemployment rate (Percent) | 13.9 | 12.4 | 11.8 | 11.3 | |||
| Prices | |||||||
| GDP deflator | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.3 | |||
| Consumer prices (Harmonized index) | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | |||
| Money and credit (End of period, percent change) | |||||||
| Private sector credit | -8.0 | -4.1 | -2.2 | -0.5 | |||
| Broad money | -0.9 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 2.0 | |||
| Fiscal indicators (Percent of GDP) | |||||||
| General government balance | -7.2 | -4.4 | -3.0 | -3.0 | |||
| Primary government balance | -2.3 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 1.5 | |||
| Structural primary balance (Percent of potential GDP) | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.4 | |||
| General government debt | 130.2 | 129.0 | 128.5 | 128.2 | |||
| Current account balance (Percent of GDP) | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.6 | |||
| Nominal GDP (Billions of euros) | 173.4 | 179.4 | 184.4 | 188.9 | |||
| Sources: Bank of Portugal; Ministry of Finance; National Statistics Office (INE); Eurostat; and IMF staff projections. | |||||||
sexta-feira, 2 de setembro de 2016
| VARIAÇÕES HOMÓLOGAS | ||||||
| HOMOLOGOUS CHANGE | ||||||
| Empréstimos de Outras Instituições Financeiras Monetárias a Particulares | ||||||
| Loans of Other Monetary Financial Institutions to Private Individuals | ||||||
| Milhões de Euros | ||||||
| Millions of Euros | ||||||
| Crédito | Concedido | Cobrança Duvidosa | ||||
| Banking Credit | Installment Credit | Uncertain Collection | ||||
| Habitação | JUN.15 | 99.984 | 2.538 | |||
| Mortgage | JUN.16 | 96.426 | -3,56% | 2.629 | 3,59% | |
| Consumo | JUN.15 | 11.962 | 1.299 | |||
| Consumption | JUN.16 | 12.701 | 6,18% | 967 | -25,56% | |
| Outros Fins | JUN.15 | 9.724 | 1.542 | |||
| Another Finality | JUN.16 | 9.277 | -4,60% | 1.526 | -1,04% | |
| Total | JUN.15 | 121.669 | 5.380 | |||
| Total | JUN.16 | 118.404 | -2,68% | 5.122 | -4,80% | |
| Fonte: Boletim Estatístico do Banco de Portugal | ||||||
| Source: Portugal Central Bank | ||||||
| VARIAÇÕES HOMÓLOGAS | ||||||
| HOMOLOGOUS CHANGE | ||||||
| Empréstimos de Outras Instituições Financeiras Monetárias a Empresas Não Financeiras | ||||||
| Loans of Other Monetary Financial Institutions to Non-Financial Corporations | ||||||
| Milhões de Euros | ||||||
| Millions of Euros | ||||||
| Crédito Concedido | Cobrança Duvidosa | |||||
| Installment Credit | Uncertain Collection | |||||
| JUN.15 | 85.366 | 13.423 | ||||
| JUN.16 | 79.714 | -6,62% | 12.933 | -3,65% | ||
| Fonte: Boletim Estatístico do Banco de Portugal | ||||||
| Source: Portugal Central Bank | ||||||
terça-feira, 2 de agosto de 2016
En España - la deuda de familias con la banca cae pero sigue en mínimos de mayo de 2006
La deuda que las familias tenían contraída con las entidades financieras se redujo el 3 % en marzo en comparación con el mismo mes de 2015, hasta alcanzar los 718.107 millones de euros, su nivel más bajo desde mayo de 2006. Según los últimos datos publicados hoy por el Banco de España, si los mismos datos se comparan con los registrados en febrero, la deuda de las familias españolas con las entidades financieras también cayó, aunque de forma mucho más leve, apenas un 0,08 %, ya que en el mes previo se situó en 718.717 millones de euros. En el caso de las empresas, los préstamos concedidos por las entidades financieras también se redujeron en marzo, un 4,78 %, en comparación interanual. Y es que a cierre de marzo de 2016, la financiación concedida a las empresas alcanzaba los 905.258 millones de euros, frente a los 950.766 millones de un año antes. En comparación con febrero, también bajó, aunque un 0,55 %, ya que en el mes anterior, las deudas de las empresas con las entidades financieras alcanzaron los 910.331 millones de euros.
La deuda que las familias tenían contraída con las entidades financieras se redujo el 3 % en marzo en comparación con el mismo mes de 2015, hasta alcanzar los 718.107 millones de euros, su nivel más bajo desde mayo de 2006. Según los últimos datos publicados hoy por el Banco de España, si los mismos datos se comparan con los registrados en febrero, la deuda de las familias españolas con las entidades financieras también cayó, aunque de forma mucho más leve, apenas un 0,08 %, ya que en el mes previo se situó en 718.717 millones de euros. En el caso de las empresas, los préstamos concedidos por las entidades financieras también se redujeron en marzo, un 4,78 %, en comparación interanual. Y es que a cierre de marzo de 2016, la financiación concedida a las empresas alcanzaba los 905.258 millones de euros, frente a los 950.766 millones de un año antes. En comparación con febrero, también bajó, aunque un 0,55 %, ya que en el mes anterior, las deudas de las empresas con las entidades financieras alcanzaron los 910.331 millones de euros.
Endettement des ménages français : stable au 1er trimestre 2016
Au 1er trimestre 2016, le taux d'endettement des ménages français est stable sur trois mois, à 87,1%. Il progresse de 1,2 point sur un an.
Le taux d'endettement des ménages correspond au rapport montant des crédits sur revenu disponible brut. Il est calculé trimestriellement par l'Insee notamment à partir des données de la Banque de France.
De même que la dette de la France a augmenté de 127,5% depuis 2000, les ménages voient leur taux d'endettement s'envoler.
Au 1er trimestre 2016, le taux d'endettement des ménages français est stable sur trois mois, à 87,1%. Il progresse de 1,2 point sur un an.
Le taux d'endettement des ménages correspond au rapport montant des crédits sur revenu disponible brut. Il est calculé trimestriellement par l'Insee notamment à partir des données de la Banque de France.
De même que la dette de la France a augmenté de 127,5% depuis 2000, les ménages voient leur taux d'endettement s'envoler.
In UK, household debt binge has no end in sight, says OBR
Britain's credit binge has no end in sight as weak pay growth and low interest rates encourage households to load up on debt, official forecasts show.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said UK households were on course to spend more than they earned for the rest of the decade.
Such a long period of households living so far beyond their means would be “unprecedented”, the fiscal watchdog said.
Households are expected to spend £58bn more than they earn this year, rising to £68bn by the end of the decade.
This is up from respective deficit forecasts of £41bn and £49.2bn in November. The OBR said data suggested spending had “significantly outpaced the growth of labour income” at the end of last year.
Consumers are expected to raid their savings to fuel consumption growth. Borrowing over the next five years would also be supported by the Bank of England’s “extremely accommodative monetary policy”.
“The persistence of a household deficit of this size would be unprecedented in the latest available historical data, which extend back to 1987,” the OBR said in its latest UK healthcheck.
It said comparable data stretching back to the early 1960s also “showed the household surplus moving into negative territory in only one year between 1963 and 1987”.
The eight years of deficits forecast by the OBR contrast with a household surplus of £37.7bn in 2012 as Britons tightened their belts in the wake of the financial crisis and saved more.
Rising consumer confidence has boosted consumption in recent years, even as spending has outpaced pay growth.
This has led households to borrow more or sell assets such as shares to fuel spending. The OBR believes net unsecured borrowing on credit cards and loans will rise to £662bn by the end of the decade, from £447bn in 2016.
This is expected to push up the unsecured debt-to-income ratio to 46pc by 2020, from 39pc in 2016.
The overall debt-to-income ratio, which includes mortgages, is expected to rise to 164pc by the end of the decade. This is slightly higher than the OBR’s projection in November and close to its pre-crisis peak.
Credit growth has picked up sharply in recent months, sparking fears of another credit bubble as interest rates stay at a record low of 0.5pc for a seventh straight year.
Bank of England data showed borrowing on credit cards and overdrafts grew at the fastest pace in a decade at the start of this year as consumers took advantage of low rates.
Mark Carney, the Bank’s Governor, has insisted that Britain’s recovery is sustainable and not “debt-fuelled”. However he warned in January that high household debt levels still posed an “indirect” threat to the economy.
He said policymakers remained “vigilant” to risks and stood ready to act if there were signs that credit growth was becoming unsustainable.
The Financial Policy Committee, which is in charge of UK financial stability, has already taken steps to rein-in mortgage lending and is likely to be given powers to curb the buy-to-let property market.
Britain's credit binge has no end in sight as weak pay growth and low interest rates encourage households to load up on debt, official forecasts show.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said UK households were on course to spend more than they earned for the rest of the decade.
Such a long period of households living so far beyond their means would be “unprecedented”, the fiscal watchdog said.
Households are expected to spend £58bn more than they earn this year, rising to £68bn by the end of the decade.
This is up from respective deficit forecasts of £41bn and £49.2bn in November. The OBR said data suggested spending had “significantly outpaced the growth of labour income” at the end of last year.
Consumers are expected to raid their savings to fuel consumption growth. Borrowing over the next five years would also be supported by the Bank of England’s “extremely accommodative monetary policy”.
“The persistence of a household deficit of this size would be unprecedented in the latest available historical data, which extend back to 1987,” the OBR said in its latest UK healthcheck.
It said comparable data stretching back to the early 1960s also “showed the household surplus moving into negative territory in only one year between 1963 and 1987”.
The eight years of deficits forecast by the OBR contrast with a household surplus of £37.7bn in 2012 as Britons tightened their belts in the wake of the financial crisis and saved more.
Rising consumer confidence has boosted consumption in recent years, even as spending has outpaced pay growth.
This has led households to borrow more or sell assets such as shares to fuel spending. The OBR believes net unsecured borrowing on credit cards and loans will rise to £662bn by the end of the decade, from £447bn in 2016.
This is expected to push up the unsecured debt-to-income ratio to 46pc by 2020, from 39pc in 2016.
The overall debt-to-income ratio, which includes mortgages, is expected to rise to 164pc by the end of the decade. This is slightly higher than the OBR’s projection in November and close to its pre-crisis peak.
Credit growth has picked up sharply in recent months, sparking fears of another credit bubble as interest rates stay at a record low of 0.5pc for a seventh straight year.
Bank of England data showed borrowing on credit cards and overdrafts grew at the fastest pace in a decade at the start of this year as consumers took advantage of low rates.
Mark Carney, the Bank’s Governor, has insisted that Britain’s recovery is sustainable and not “debt-fuelled”. However he warned in January that high household debt levels still posed an “indirect” threat to the economy.
He said policymakers remained “vigilant” to risks and stood ready to act if there were signs that credit growth was becoming unsustainable.
The Financial Policy Committee, which is in charge of UK financial stability, has already taken steps to rein-in mortgage lending and is likely to be given powers to curb the buy-to-let property market.
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