Youth unemployment in EU
In November 2017, 3.698 million young persons (under 25) were unemployed in the EU28, of whom 2.624 million were in the euro area.
Compared with November 2016, youth unemployment decreased by 429 000 in the EU28 and by 286 000 in the euro area.
In November 2017, the youth unemployment rate was 16.2% in the EU28 and 18.2% in the euro area, compared with 18.2% and 20.5% respectively in November 2016.
In November 2017, the lowest rates were observed in the Czech Republic (5.0%) and Germany (6.6%), while the highest were recorded in Greece (39.5% in September 2017), Spain (37.9%) and Italy (32.7%).
Geographical information
The euro area (EA19) includes Belgium, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia and Finland.
The European Union (EU28) includes Belgium, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland, Sweden and the United Kingdom.
Eurostat produces harmonised unemployment rates for individual EU Member States, the euro area and the EU.
These unemployment rates are based on the definition recommended by the International Labour Organisation (ILO).
The measurement is based on a harmonised source, the European Union Labour Force Survey (LFS).
- are available to start work within the next two weeks;
- and have actively sought employment at some time during the previous four weeks.
The unemployment rate is the number of people unemployed as a percentage of the labour force.
The labour force is the total number of people employed plus unemployed. In this news release unemployment rates are based on employment and unemployment data covering persons aged 15 to 74.
The youth unemployment rate is the number of people aged 15 to 24 unemployed as a percentage of the labour force of the same age. Therefore, the youth unemployment rate should not be interpreted as the share of jobless people in the overall youth population.
When data for the most recent month are not available for a Member State, EU and EA aggregates are calculated using the latest data available for that Member State.
Country notes
Belgium: Due to a methodological break in the LFS data for the 1st quarter of 2017, data prior to Q1 2017 are not comparable and therefore not shown.
Ireland: Due to a methodological change in the LFS data for the 3rd quarter of 2017, data for the youth and gender breakdowns are not yet available.
Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, Sweden and Iceland: the trend component is used instead of the more volatile seasonally adjusted data.
Denmark, Estonia, Hungary, Portugal, the United Kingdom and Norway: 3-month moving averages of LFS data are used instead of pure monthly indicators.
Consultoria, aconselhamento e esclarecimento no Endividamento das Famílias e das Empresas não Financeiras. Consultadoria Estratégica Económica, Financeira e Bancária. Indebteness Consultancy for Family's and Enterprises. General Banking, Economics and Financial Strategic Consultancy.
terça-feira, 9 de janeiro de 2018
Euro area unemployment at 8.7%
EU28 at 7.3%
The Euro Area (EA19) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 8.7% in November 2017, down from 8.8% in October 2017 and from 9.8% in November 2016.
This is the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since January 2009. The EU28 unemployment rate was 7.3% in November 2017, down from 7.4% in October 2017 and from 8.3% in November 2016.
This is the lowest rate recorded in the EU28 since October 2008. These figures are published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.
Eurostat estimates that 18.116 million men and women in the EU28, of whom 14.263 million in the euro area, were unemployed in November 2017.
Compared with October 2017, the number of persons unemployed decreased by 155 000 in the EU28 and by 107 000 in the euro area. Compared with November 2016, unemployment fell by 2.133 million in the EU28 and by 1.561 million in the euro area.
Member States
Among the Member States, the lowest unemployment rates in November 2017 were recorded in the Czech Republic (2.5%), Malta and Germany (both 3.6%). The highest unemployment rates were observed in Greece (20.5% in September 2017) and Spain (16.7%).
Compared with a year ago, the unemployment rate fell in all Member States for which data is comparable over time. The largest decreases were registered in Greece (from 23.2% to 20.5% between September 2016 and September 2017), Portugal (from 10.5% to 8.2%), Croatia (from 12.5% to 10.4%) and Cyprus (from 13.1% to 11.0%).
In November 2017, the unemployment rate in the United States was 4.1%, stable compared to October 2017 and down from 4.6% in November 2016.
EU28 at 7.3%
The Euro Area (EA19) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 8.7% in November 2017, down from 8.8% in October 2017 and from 9.8% in November 2016.
This is the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since January 2009. The EU28 unemployment rate was 7.3% in November 2017, down from 7.4% in October 2017 and from 8.3% in November 2016.
This is the lowest rate recorded in the EU28 since October 2008. These figures are published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.
Eurostat estimates that 18.116 million men and women in the EU28, of whom 14.263 million in the euro area, were unemployed in November 2017.
Compared with October 2017, the number of persons unemployed decreased by 155 000 in the EU28 and by 107 000 in the euro area. Compared with November 2016, unemployment fell by 2.133 million in the EU28 and by 1.561 million in the euro area.
Member States
Among the Member States, the lowest unemployment rates in November 2017 were recorded in the Czech Republic (2.5%), Malta and Germany (both 3.6%). The highest unemployment rates were observed in Greece (20.5% in September 2017) and Spain (16.7%).
Compared with a year ago, the unemployment rate fell in all Member States for which data is comparable over time. The largest decreases were registered in Greece (from 23.2% to 20.5% between September 2016 and September 2017), Portugal (from 10.5% to 8.2%), Croatia (from 12.5% to 10.4%) and Cyprus (from 13.1% to 11.0%).
In November 2017, the unemployment rate in the United States was 4.1%, stable compared to October 2017 and down from 4.6% in November 2016.
quarta-feira, 3 de janeiro de 2018
Portugal Economic Growth - DEC.17
Growth momentum is expected to remain strong next year thanks to healthy private consumption, a flourishing tourism sector, robust investment and a resilient external sector.
An anticipated fall in the growth of exports, however, will likely moderate the economy’s pace of expansion in 2018.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy growing 2.1% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and project GDP growth of 1.8% in 2019.
Growth momentum is expected to remain strong next year thanks to healthy private consumption, a flourishing tourism sector, robust investment and a resilient external sector.
An anticipated fall in the growth of exports, however, will likely moderate the economy’s pace of expansion in 2018.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy growing 2.1% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and project GDP growth of 1.8% in 2019.
Portugal Economic Outlook - DEC.17
The economy is experiencing a momentous turnaround.
Quarter-on-quarter growth in Q3 was confirmed at 0.5%, up from 0.3% in Q2.
A rebound in private consumption, bolstered by positive consumer confidence and the ongoing recovery in the labor market, was behind Q3’s higher print.
Although confidence among households fell in November from October’s record high, overall economic sentiment in the month remained strong and points to a solid economic performance in the final quarter.
A critical turning point in Portugal’s recovery from the debt crisis that brought it to the brink of default five years ago came on 15 December, when Fitch Ratings upgraded the nation’s credit rating by two notches.
Citing “favorable debt dynamics”, supported by prudent fiscal measures and improving economic conditions, the agency raised the rating from junk status (BB+) to investment grade (BBB).
The move, which follows S&P’s upgrade to investment-grade status in September, means that Portuguese bonds will now be eligible to enter major bond indices for the first time in six years.
The economy is experiencing a momentous turnaround.
Quarter-on-quarter growth in Q3 was confirmed at 0.5%, up from 0.3% in Q2.
A rebound in private consumption, bolstered by positive consumer confidence and the ongoing recovery in the labor market, was behind Q3’s higher print.
Although confidence among households fell in November from October’s record high, overall economic sentiment in the month remained strong and points to a solid economic performance in the final quarter.
A critical turning point in Portugal’s recovery from the debt crisis that brought it to the brink of default five years ago came on 15 December, when Fitch Ratings upgraded the nation’s credit rating by two notches.
Citing “favorable debt dynamics”, supported by prudent fiscal measures and improving economic conditions, the agency raised the rating from junk status (BB+) to investment grade (BBB).
The move, which follows S&P’s upgrade to investment-grade status in September, means that Portuguese bonds will now be eligible to enter major bond indices for the first time in six years.
| VARIAÇÕES HOMÓLOGAS | ||||||
| HOMOLOGOUS CHANGE | ||||||
| Empréstimos de Outras Instituições Financeiras Monetárias a Particulares | ||||||
| Loans of Other Monetary Financial Institutions to Private Individuals | ||||||
| Milhões de Euros | ||||||
| Millions of Euros | ||||||
| Crédito | Concedido | Cobrança Duvidosa | ||||
| Banking Credit | Installment Credit | Uncertain Collection | ||||
| Habitação | OUT.16 | 94.907 | 2.394 | |||
| Mortgage | OUT.17 | 93.386 | 2.095 | -12,49% | ||
| Consumo | OUT.16 | 12.476 | 1.066 | |||
| Consumption | OUT.17 | 13.482 | 8,06% | 727 | -31,80% | |
| Outros Fins | OUT.16 | 8.907 | 1.390 | |||
| Another Finality | OUT.17 | 7.741 | -13,09% | 1.838 | 32,23% | |
| Total | OUT.16 | 116.290 | 4.851 | |||
| Total | OUT.17 | 114.609 | -1,45% | 4.660 | -3,94% | |
| Fonte: Boletim Estatístico do Banco de Portugal | ||||||
| Source: Portugal Central Bank | ||||||
| VARIAÇÕES HOMÓLOGAS | ||||||
| HOMOLOGOUS CHANGE | ||||||
| Empréstimos de Outras Instituições Financeiras Monetárias a Empresas Não Financeiras | ||||||
| Loans of Other Monetary Financial Institutions to Non-Financial Corporations | ||||||
| Milhões de Euros | ||||||
| Millions of Euros | ||||||
| Crédito Concedido | Cobrança Duvidosa | |||||
| Installment Credit | Uncertain Collection | |||||
| OUT.16 | 79.402 | 12.880 | ||||
| OUT.17 | 74.202 | -6,55% | 10.139 | -21,28% | ||
| Fonte: Boletim Estatístico do Banco de Portugal | ||||||
| Source: Portugal Central Bank | ||||||
sexta-feira, 15 de dezembro de 2017
Portugal: IMF-Staff Concluding Statement of the Sixth Post-Program Monitoring Mission
Portugal’s near-term outlook remains favorable, supported by a pick-up in investment and continued growth in exports and private consumption. Fiscal targets for 2017 and 2018 appear within reach and bond spreads have narrowed substantially, while stability and confidence in the banking system have improved as banks have raised more capital. Sustained strong growth is central to lowering the vulnerabilities from high public and private debt, and requires continued efforts to address structural rigidities. Current favorable conditions provide an opportunity for more ambitious structural fiscal consolidation and an even faster reduction in public debt.
1. Economic activity strengthened in 2017, boosted by a significant pickup in investment and continued growth in exports and private consumption. Investment rose 10 percent during January-September (year-on-year) compared with 1.6 percent in 2016, supported by a marked rebound in construction. Construction has been strongly driven by tourism-related projects, as the expansion of the tourist sector has continued in 2017. Household consumption has also remained a key driver of growth as the labor market continues to improve, with the unemployment rate falling to 8.5 percent in the third quarter from 10.5 percent a year ago, and domestic confidence indicators are at their highest level in over a decade.
2. Prospects for growth in the baseline scenario are positive, and risks appear broadly balanced in the near term. Growth is holding up well amid the cyclical deceleration in the two most recent quarters. At the same time, economic conditions in some of Portugal’s main European partners appear better than anticipated. As a result, real GDP growth is now projected to reach 2.6 percent in 2017 and 2.2 percent in 2018, and then to moderate over the medium term. The potential threats to this baseline scenario could come from a repricing of risk in global markets, prolonged uncertainty in Spain, and insufficient progress on reforms; while a stronger cyclical momentum in euro zone economies could surprise on the positive side. Medium-term risks include a rise in volatility in European bond markets as monetary accommodation is gradually reduced in the euro zone, and structurally weak growth in key trading partners.
3. Strong growth, together with continued efforts to contain spending, should allow headline fiscal deficit targets for 2017 and 2018 to be achieved comfortably. Fiscal performance is benefitting from the continued decline in interest costs, as improved market sentiment towards Portugal has contributed to a sharp narrowing in sovereign debt spreads during 2017. Based on the latest data, staff projects a headline fiscal deficit of 1.4 percent of GDP in 2017 (excluding costs associated with the recapitalization of CGD, whose classification in the fiscal accounts is still under review); the 2018 budget targets a further decline to 1.1 percent of GDP. This would imply a small loosening of the primary structural balance in both years. The ratio of public debt to GDP is projected to decline to 126 percent of GDP at the end of 2017, and to continue declining over the medium term.
4. Favorable borrowing conditions and the economic upswing provide an auspicious opportunity for an even faster reduction of public debt. High public debt remains a vulnerability over the medium term, as it constrains the government’s ability to respond to adverse shocks that might arise down the road. While strong growth and lower interest costs are presently supporting the reduction in indebtedness, these tailwinds are likely to moderate over time as real GDP growth eases back to its medium-term potential and as the stimulus from monetary policy is eventually reduced. Structural consolidation in the primary fiscal balance therefore remains essential to keep public debt on a firmly downward trajectory over the medium-term, and the current cyclical conditions offer an opportunity to make faster progress in this direction. An adjustment focused on durable expenditure reform is likely to prove more sustainable and supportive of growth. The authorities should be cautious about permanent increases in spending that would reduce the flexibility of public expenditure when cyclical conditions change. Such caution is especially important in relation to decisions that may affect the trajectory of the government wage bill in coming years.
5. Together with the recent increases in capital, Portuguese banks have increased their liquidity and continue to make progress on cleaning up bad loans. Banks’ capital ratios have improved, with the common equity tier 1 ratio increasing by 1.8 percentage points since end- 2016 to 13.2 percent in June, and the completion of the Novo Banco sale further contributed to reducing uncertainty. Nonperforming loans (NPLs) declined to 15.5 percent of gross loans from 17.2 percent at end-2016, and the NPL coverage ratio improved marginally to 45.9 percent in June. Banks also returned to modest profitability in the first half of the year after a negative outturn in 2016, owing to an increase in net interest margins and a decline in provisioning.
6. Continued progress on reducing still-elevated NPL ratios and costs in the banking system are essential to support more effective intermediation of savings to productive investment. Financial stability has improved over the past year, but the high level of NPLs limits banks’ internal capacity to generate stronger returns and increase their capital. Also, some upcoming regulatory changes in the euro area, although aiming to boost resilience, could affect some banks’ funding structure and costs. Banks’ improved financial results this year are encouraging, as is the ongoing implementation of ECB guidance to banks on NPLs. Continued efforts in this area, including by improving business models and cost efficiency, so banks can generate new capital from their own profits, are necessary to ensure that they remain resilient and better support the real economy. New initiatives to support the reorganization of viable debtors in distress and the recovery of collateral, including through proposed out-of-court mechanisms, need to be implemented and closely monitored.
7. Raising the economy’s growth potential and resilience to shocks will also require further structural reforms and higher investment and productivity. A flexible labor market is key for the economy’s capacity to absorb negative shocks and adapt to new opportunities that arise with structural change. Wages that are well aligned with productivity would help Portugal take fuller advantage of higher-skilled entrants to the labor force while safeguarding competitiveness. Investment also needs to increase substantially to raise the economy’s medium-term growth potential; preserving external balance along the way requires strengthening national saving rates as well. Ongoing initiatives in a number of areas already mentioned should help, but structural reforms should also focus on other factors that continue to influence investors’ perceptions of the business environment.
Portugal’s near-term outlook remains favorable, supported by a pick-up in investment and continued growth in exports and private consumption. Fiscal targets for 2017 and 2018 appear within reach and bond spreads have narrowed substantially, while stability and confidence in the banking system have improved as banks have raised more capital. Sustained strong growth is central to lowering the vulnerabilities from high public and private debt, and requires continued efforts to address structural rigidities. Current favorable conditions provide an opportunity for more ambitious structural fiscal consolidation and an even faster reduction in public debt.
1. Economic activity strengthened in 2017, boosted by a significant pickup in investment and continued growth in exports and private consumption. Investment rose 10 percent during January-September (year-on-year) compared with 1.6 percent in 2016, supported by a marked rebound in construction. Construction has been strongly driven by tourism-related projects, as the expansion of the tourist sector has continued in 2017. Household consumption has also remained a key driver of growth as the labor market continues to improve, with the unemployment rate falling to 8.5 percent in the third quarter from 10.5 percent a year ago, and domestic confidence indicators are at their highest level in over a decade.
2. Prospects for growth in the baseline scenario are positive, and risks appear broadly balanced in the near term. Growth is holding up well amid the cyclical deceleration in the two most recent quarters. At the same time, economic conditions in some of Portugal’s main European partners appear better than anticipated. As a result, real GDP growth is now projected to reach 2.6 percent in 2017 and 2.2 percent in 2018, and then to moderate over the medium term. The potential threats to this baseline scenario could come from a repricing of risk in global markets, prolonged uncertainty in Spain, and insufficient progress on reforms; while a stronger cyclical momentum in euro zone economies could surprise on the positive side. Medium-term risks include a rise in volatility in European bond markets as monetary accommodation is gradually reduced in the euro zone, and structurally weak growth in key trading partners.
3. Strong growth, together with continued efforts to contain spending, should allow headline fiscal deficit targets for 2017 and 2018 to be achieved comfortably. Fiscal performance is benefitting from the continued decline in interest costs, as improved market sentiment towards Portugal has contributed to a sharp narrowing in sovereign debt spreads during 2017. Based on the latest data, staff projects a headline fiscal deficit of 1.4 percent of GDP in 2017 (excluding costs associated with the recapitalization of CGD, whose classification in the fiscal accounts is still under review); the 2018 budget targets a further decline to 1.1 percent of GDP. This would imply a small loosening of the primary structural balance in both years. The ratio of public debt to GDP is projected to decline to 126 percent of GDP at the end of 2017, and to continue declining over the medium term.
4. Favorable borrowing conditions and the economic upswing provide an auspicious opportunity for an even faster reduction of public debt. High public debt remains a vulnerability over the medium term, as it constrains the government’s ability to respond to adverse shocks that might arise down the road. While strong growth and lower interest costs are presently supporting the reduction in indebtedness, these tailwinds are likely to moderate over time as real GDP growth eases back to its medium-term potential and as the stimulus from monetary policy is eventually reduced. Structural consolidation in the primary fiscal balance therefore remains essential to keep public debt on a firmly downward trajectory over the medium-term, and the current cyclical conditions offer an opportunity to make faster progress in this direction. An adjustment focused on durable expenditure reform is likely to prove more sustainable and supportive of growth. The authorities should be cautious about permanent increases in spending that would reduce the flexibility of public expenditure when cyclical conditions change. Such caution is especially important in relation to decisions that may affect the trajectory of the government wage bill in coming years.
5. Together with the recent increases in capital, Portuguese banks have increased their liquidity and continue to make progress on cleaning up bad loans. Banks’ capital ratios have improved, with the common equity tier 1 ratio increasing by 1.8 percentage points since end- 2016 to 13.2 percent in June, and the completion of the Novo Banco sale further contributed to reducing uncertainty. Nonperforming loans (NPLs) declined to 15.5 percent of gross loans from 17.2 percent at end-2016, and the NPL coverage ratio improved marginally to 45.9 percent in June. Banks also returned to modest profitability in the first half of the year after a negative outturn in 2016, owing to an increase in net interest margins and a decline in provisioning.
6. Continued progress on reducing still-elevated NPL ratios and costs in the banking system are essential to support more effective intermediation of savings to productive investment. Financial stability has improved over the past year, but the high level of NPLs limits banks’ internal capacity to generate stronger returns and increase their capital. Also, some upcoming regulatory changes in the euro area, although aiming to boost resilience, could affect some banks’ funding structure and costs. Banks’ improved financial results this year are encouraging, as is the ongoing implementation of ECB guidance to banks on NPLs. Continued efforts in this area, including by improving business models and cost efficiency, so banks can generate new capital from their own profits, are necessary to ensure that they remain resilient and better support the real economy. New initiatives to support the reorganization of viable debtors in distress and the recovery of collateral, including through proposed out-of-court mechanisms, need to be implemented and closely monitored.
7. Raising the economy’s growth potential and resilience to shocks will also require further structural reforms and higher investment and productivity. A flexible labor market is key for the economy’s capacity to absorb negative shocks and adapt to new opportunities that arise with structural change. Wages that are well aligned with productivity would help Portugal take fuller advantage of higher-skilled entrants to the labor force while safeguarding competitiveness. Investment also needs to increase substantially to raise the economy’s medium-term growth potential; preserving external balance along the way requires strengthening national saving rates as well. Ongoing initiatives in a number of areas already mentioned should help, but structural reforms should also focus on other factors that continue to influence investors’ perceptions of the business environment.
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