Portuguese Economic Situation – some guidelines to understand it

In our democratic history (since 1974), we had to kinds of Governments (to take back the period between 1974 – 1977 – the “Revolution Period”, with preponderance of Communist Party) – Socialist Governments and Social Democratic Governments.

The Socialist Governments, with particular emphasis in Social and Behaviour questions, spend more money than the country can, and the deficit of Public Accounts and our Public Indebtedness grow and increase more and more.
The Social Democratic Governments, they move with careful in Public Account and Indebtedness, and balance all situations that the Socialist Governments leave.

In this moment, we are in “Socialist Cycle” since 2005. Between 2005 – 2009, with absolute majority; and since 2009 with minority governance.

All this kind of governance and the international financial crisis, had contribute for Portuguese Economic Crisis.

It’s urgent that Portuguese Government make important reforms in Administrative Public Sector (APS). Portugal doesn’t need 750.000 people in APS. Portugal has Public services, Institutes and other relatives services, in excess.

It’s necessary courage to take decisions in this way. Off course, it will be unpopular measures, but necessary measures. We can’t continue like now.

In my opinion, Portugal doesn’t need help of IMF or EU Stabilisation Fund. I believe that with courage and determination, we can do our way without financial help.
If we look Greece and Ireland, we see that IMF and EU Stabilisation Fund, didn’t enough credibility to these Governments, and the rates of interest grow and grow. Today the rate in financial markets is 12,4% for Greece and 10,2% for Ireland.

The principal problem is Credibility. If Portugal like to go out of this difficult situation, only with quality measures that give to markets, one image of strong credibility, but I don’t know if it is possible with this Government.

I believe that this year, Portuguese Parliament will be dissolved by Portuguese President of Republic, to convoke new elections and the people choose another politic cycle, with Social Democratic Government, in the way to consolidate our economic situation and give another direction that the country needs.