CONSELHO CONSULTIVO - 5.JUN
ETV - Diário Económico
Consultoria, aconselhamento e esclarecimento no Endividamento das Famílias e das Empresas não Financeiras. Consultadoria Estratégica Económica, Financeira e Bancária. Indebteness Consultancy for Family's and Enterprises. General Banking, Economics and Financial Strategic Consultancy.
terça-feira, 5 de junho de 2012
segunda-feira, 4 de junho de 2012
Statement by the EC, ECB, and IMF on the Fourth Review Mission to Portugal - 4.JUN.12
The program remains on track amidst continued challenges.
The authorities are implementing the reform policies broadly as planned and external adjustment is proceeding faster than expected. At the same time, rising unemployment has emerged as a pressing concern. The need to combine fiscal consolidation with deleveraging private balance sheets while restoring external cost competitiveness remains a difficult balancing act. But the authorities are determined to stay the course of adjustment and reform. Broad-based political support and social consensus is a key contribution to a successful adjustment.
Growth in 2012 may hold up better than expected.
The rebalancing of the economy has continued, with stronger-than-expected exports more than offsetting weaker domestic demand. GDP in 2012 is now expected to decline by 3 percent (against 3¼ percent before). Positive albeit still subdued growth is expected in 2013. However, with domestic demand weak and pressures on firms to reduce high indebtedness, unemployment has increased sharply as part of the adjustment process, and could peak at close to 16 percent in 2013. Continued tensions in the euro area represent a risk clouding the external outlook.
The ambitious 2012 fiscal deficit target remains within reach.
Notwithstanding the weaker labor market and a less tax-friendly growth composition, the authorities expect to achieve the deficit target of 4.5 percent of GDP. As during the third review, new fiscal measures were not discussed, but developments warrant close monitoring to detect potential slippages in a timely manner. The strategy to prevent new and to settle existing arrears is being implemented and regional and local governments under financial stress receive additional support, on the condition of enhancing their own consolidation efforts. Reforms of state-owned enterprises and public-private partnerships are on track. Efforts to strengthen public financial management, bolster tax compliance, and streamline public administration are continuing at good pace.
Protecting the banking system and ensuring orderly deleveraging remain among the program priorities.
Liquidity in the banking system continues to benefit from exceptional support from the Eurosystem. The authorities are finalizing efforts to ensure that mid-year targets for banks’ capital buffers will be met. Further progress has also been made in strengthening the banking supervision and resolution frameworks. Tight credit conditions remain a concern and a range of measures is in train to ensure that sound companies, particularly in the tradable sectors, can fund their activities.
Progress is being made on reforms to raise long-term growth.
Although product market reforms could still be stepped up in some areas, the program’s structural reform agenda will create the conditions for sustainable growth in productive jobs over the medium term. Reforms are in progress as regards removing rigidities in the housing market, privatizing state companies, making the ports more competitive, and increasing the efficiency of the judicial system. Examples of reforms already legislated include the competition law, the insolvency code, and the urban lease law. Some progress has also been made in reducing the undue burden on consumers and taxpayers by increasing competition and reducing rents in the network and sheltered services sectors, including in the electricity sector. Nevertheless, more determination is needed to push through reforms that touch on sensitive political and vested interests.
The surge in unemployment requires decisive policy action.
Temporarily higher unemployment is part of the transition to a more export-oriented economy, but its rise has been exacerbated by Portugal’s long-standing labor market rigidities. The recent approval of the revised Labor Code should attenuate job losses. The broader structural reform agenda and rising capacity utilization in the export sector should help employment recover in the medium term. Nevertheless, further action to improve the functioning of the labor market is urgent. This includes institutional reforms that give firms more flexibility in matching labor costs and productivity. The exceptionally high unemployment, particularly among the young, also calls for more immediate measures, including active labor market policies. We also welcome the government’s initiative to consider, in the context of the budget 2013, ways to reduce social security contributions targeting specific segments of the labor force.
Overall, this review confirms that the program is making good progress amid continued strong external support.
Provided that the authorities persevere with strict program implementation, the euro area member states have declared they stand ready to support Portugal until market access is regained. The efforts of the Portuguese authorities are being complemented by a strengthened EU economic policy framework and new EU initiatives to support growth and employment in Portugal, and in Europe as a whole.
The government’s program is supported by loans from the European Union amounting to €52 billion and a €26 billion Extended Fund Facility with the IMF. Approval of the conclusion of this review will allow the disbursement of €4.1 billion (€2.7 billion by the EU, and €1.4 billion by the IMF). These disbursements could take place in July subject to the approval of the IMF Executive Board and ECOFIN and EUROGROUP. The joint mission for the next program review is expected to take place in September 2012.
The program remains on track amidst continued challenges.
The authorities are implementing the reform policies broadly as planned and external adjustment is proceeding faster than expected. At the same time, rising unemployment has emerged as a pressing concern. The need to combine fiscal consolidation with deleveraging private balance sheets while restoring external cost competitiveness remains a difficult balancing act. But the authorities are determined to stay the course of adjustment and reform. Broad-based political support and social consensus is a key contribution to a successful adjustment.
Growth in 2012 may hold up better than expected.
The rebalancing of the economy has continued, with stronger-than-expected exports more than offsetting weaker domestic demand. GDP in 2012 is now expected to decline by 3 percent (against 3¼ percent before). Positive albeit still subdued growth is expected in 2013. However, with domestic demand weak and pressures on firms to reduce high indebtedness, unemployment has increased sharply as part of the adjustment process, and could peak at close to 16 percent in 2013. Continued tensions in the euro area represent a risk clouding the external outlook.
The ambitious 2012 fiscal deficit target remains within reach.
Notwithstanding the weaker labor market and a less tax-friendly growth composition, the authorities expect to achieve the deficit target of 4.5 percent of GDP. As during the third review, new fiscal measures were not discussed, but developments warrant close monitoring to detect potential slippages in a timely manner. The strategy to prevent new and to settle existing arrears is being implemented and regional and local governments under financial stress receive additional support, on the condition of enhancing their own consolidation efforts. Reforms of state-owned enterprises and public-private partnerships are on track. Efforts to strengthen public financial management, bolster tax compliance, and streamline public administration are continuing at good pace.
Protecting the banking system and ensuring orderly deleveraging remain among the program priorities.
Liquidity in the banking system continues to benefit from exceptional support from the Eurosystem. The authorities are finalizing efforts to ensure that mid-year targets for banks’ capital buffers will be met. Further progress has also been made in strengthening the banking supervision and resolution frameworks. Tight credit conditions remain a concern and a range of measures is in train to ensure that sound companies, particularly in the tradable sectors, can fund their activities.
Progress is being made on reforms to raise long-term growth.
Although product market reforms could still be stepped up in some areas, the program’s structural reform agenda will create the conditions for sustainable growth in productive jobs over the medium term. Reforms are in progress as regards removing rigidities in the housing market, privatizing state companies, making the ports more competitive, and increasing the efficiency of the judicial system. Examples of reforms already legislated include the competition law, the insolvency code, and the urban lease law. Some progress has also been made in reducing the undue burden on consumers and taxpayers by increasing competition and reducing rents in the network and sheltered services sectors, including in the electricity sector. Nevertheless, more determination is needed to push through reforms that touch on sensitive political and vested interests.
The surge in unemployment requires decisive policy action.
Temporarily higher unemployment is part of the transition to a more export-oriented economy, but its rise has been exacerbated by Portugal’s long-standing labor market rigidities. The recent approval of the revised Labor Code should attenuate job losses. The broader structural reform agenda and rising capacity utilization in the export sector should help employment recover in the medium term. Nevertheless, further action to improve the functioning of the labor market is urgent. This includes institutional reforms that give firms more flexibility in matching labor costs and productivity. The exceptionally high unemployment, particularly among the young, also calls for more immediate measures, including active labor market policies. We also welcome the government’s initiative to consider, in the context of the budget 2013, ways to reduce social security contributions targeting specific segments of the labor force.
Overall, this review confirms that the program is making good progress amid continued strong external support.
Provided that the authorities persevere with strict program implementation, the euro area member states have declared they stand ready to support Portugal until market access is regained. The efforts of the Portuguese authorities are being complemented by a strengthened EU economic policy framework and new EU initiatives to support growth and employment in Portugal, and in Europe as a whole.
The government’s program is supported by loans from the European Union amounting to €52 billion and a €26 billion Extended Fund Facility with the IMF. Approval of the conclusion of this review will allow the disbursement of €4.1 billion (€2.7 billion by the EU, and €1.4 billion by the IMF). These disbursements could take place in July subject to the approval of the IMF Executive Board and ECOFIN and EUROGROUP. The joint mission for the next program review is expected to take place in September 2012.
quinta-feira, 31 de maio de 2012
A SOLUÇÃO QUE TARDA
Opinião do Autor
Diário Económico - 31/MAI
http://economico.sapo.pt/noticias/a-solucao-que-tarda_145663.html
Opinião do Autor
Diário Económico - 31/MAI
http://economico.sapo.pt/noticias/a-solucao-que-tarda_145663.html
quarta-feira, 30 de maio de 2012
CONSELHO CONSULTIVO - 29.MAI
ETV - Económico TV
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqnhK9n9hqM&feature=youtu.be
ETV - Económico TV
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqnhK9n9hqM&feature=youtu.be
terça-feira, 22 de maio de 2012
Crédito Concedido a Particulares/Crédito de Cobrança Duvidosa - Variação Homóloga
| VARIAÇÕES HOMÓLOGAS | ||||||
| HOMOLOGOUS CHANGE | ||||||
| Empréstimos de Outras Instituições Financeiras Monetárias a Particulares | ||||||
| Loans of Other Monetary Financial Institutions to Private Individuals | ||||||
| Crédito | Concedido | Cobrança Duvidosa | ||||
| Banking Credit | Installment Credit | Uncertain Collection | ||||
| Habitação | MAR.11 | 114511 | 1963 | |||
| Mortgage | MAR.12 | 113817 | -0,61% | 2190 | 11,56% | |
| Consumo | MAR.11 | 15228 | 1302 | |||
| Consumption | MAR.12 | 14501 | -4,77% | 1551 | 19,12% | |
| Outros Fins | MAR.11 | 12010 | 899 | |||
| Another Finality | MAR.12 | 11433 | -4,80% | 1158 | 28,81% | |
| Total | MAR.11 | 141750 | 4163 | |||
| Total | MAR.12 | 138751 | -2,12% | 4899 | 17,68% | |
| Fonte: Boletim Estatístico do Banco de Portugal | ||||||
| Source: Portugal Central Bank | ||||||
segunda-feira, 21 de maio de 2012
LA SITUATION CRITIQUE DE LA FRANCE
La
France est en train de devenir le maillon faible de la zone euro.
En dépit de quelques réformes significatives (réforme des retraites, Crédit
d'impôt recherche, réforme des universités, etc.), la situation économique de
la France devient de plus en
plus délicate.
Le
déficit public structurel est de 4 points de PIB, le déficit de la balance
courante des paiements de 3 points de PIB et la part de la production
industrielle dans le PIB a chuté de 30 % de 1998 à 2011. La part de nos
exportations dans les exportations mondiales a baissé de 40 % sur la même
période. L'excès de nos dépenses publiques devient terrifiant, soit 8 points de
PIB de plus que la moyenne des autres pays de la zone euro en 2011 et 9 points
en 2012 !
Il
faudrait baisser les dépenses publiques de 20 milliards d'euros dans
chacune des trois années 2012 - 2014 et les geler ensuite en volume pendant trois ans.
Tout
porte à penser que l'année
2012, avec une prévision de baisse du PIB de la zone euro selon la Commission
européenne, ne sera pas simple à gérer quel que soit l'élu.
C'est
le déficit du commerce extérieur qui est le signe le plus inquiétant de l'effondrement
relatif de la base productive. Ce déficit a atteint 3,5 % du PIB en 2011 quand
les excédents allemands atteignent le double en points de PIB ! Le taux
d'activité de la population est très faible : il manque trois millions
d'emplois productifs marchands pour retrouver une position compétitive moins calamiteuse.
Alors que la concurrence fiscale et sociale
fait rage au sein de l'Union
européenne et que la relance de l'économie dépend de la volonté des
entrepreneurs et des investisseurs de rebâtir le "site de production
France", une telle annonce ne peut qu'encourager ces créateurs de richesses à fuir le pays. Etrange paradoxe ! On veut développer les entreprises en punissant
les entrepreneurs.
Pourtant
François Hollande a bien
identifié qu'il fallait encourager l'innovation.
Les
entreprises du CAC 40 sont très internationalisées et les entreprises
industrielles du CAC 40 font les deux tiers de leur activité et les trois
quarts de leurs profits hors de France. L’objectif de reconstruire derrière elles, un ensemble cohérent de 400
grandes entreprises internationales, à forte base française, qui puissent servir de fer de lance de la reconstruction de filières de
production compétitives tandis qu'une politique
fiscale et d'encouragement à l'innovation doit permettre l'essor de 4 000 puissantes ETI (entreprises de
taille intermédiaire) qui permettront de mailler le territoire français de 40 000 PME dynamiques.
La
croissance économique mondiale se territorialise : ce sont des métropoles
puissantes et des districts régionaux dynamiques qui concentrent la création de
richesses dans tous les pays du monde.
La
France doit accélérer le redéploiement de son appareil de production en
favorisant l'émergence de trois niveaux de métropoles pour servir d'écosystèmes de développement aux
trois groupes d'entreprises précitées : trois grandes métropoles (Grand Paris,
Grand Lyon, Grand Marseille), une douzaine de métropoles régionales à vocation
européenne et une cinquantaine de grandes préfectures permettant de concentrer tous les systèmes de décision, d'information et de
recherche, et de financement pour les mettre en synergie au service des trois groupes d'entreprises.
Des régions rendues pleinement responsables des systèmes d'innovation et de
financement territoriaux complètent ce dispositif de reconquête.
Tout
est encore possible. Mais il faut décider et agir vite !
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