CONSELHO CONSULTIVO - 28.FEV                            
        ETV - Diário Económico                                                             
          (Author Participation)

http://videos.sapo.pt/tMUsvNDgOfBbbJWQv9bA

CONSELHO CONSULTIVO - 21.FEV                            
        ETV - Diário Económico                                                             
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http://videos.sapo.pt/Okr8lGf9wpkVuggqJ6Ay

	VARIAÇÕES HOMÓLOGAS
	HOMOLOGOUS CHANGE
Empréstimos de Outras Instituições Financeiras Monetárias a Particulares
Loans of Other Monetary Financial Institutions to Private Individuals
					Milhões de Euros
					Millions of Euros
Crédito		Concedido		Cobrança Duvidosa
Banking Credit	Installment Credit			Uncertain Collection
Habitação	DEZ.12	109.673			2.253
Mortgage	DEZ.13	105.775	-3,55%		2.398	6,44%
Consumo	DEZ.12	13.371			1.580
Consumption	DEZ.13	12.075	-9,69%		1.408	-10,89%
Outros Fins	DEZ.12	10.975			1.270
Another Finality	DEZ.13	10.264	-6,48%		1.296	2,05%
Total	DEZ.12	134.019			5.103
Total	DEZ.13	128.114	-4,41%		5.101	-0,04%
Fonte: Boletim Estatístico do Banco de Portugal
Source: Portugal Central Bank

	VARIAÇÕES HOMÓLOGAS
	HOMOLOGOUS CHANGE
Empréstimos de Outras Instituições Financeiras Monetárias a Empresas Não Financeiras
Loans of Other Monetary Financial Institutions to Non-Financial Corporations
					Milhões de Euros
					Millions of Euros
	Crédito Concedido				Cobrança Duvidosa
Installment Credit				Uncertain Collection
	DEZ.12	105.361			9.950
	DEZ.13	99.296	-5,76%		11.590	16,48%
Fonte: Boletim Estatístico do Banco de Portugal
Source: Portugal Central Bank

IMF - Portugal: Tenth Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Waivers of Applicability of end-December Performance Criteria

The short-term outlook has improved and program implementation remains on track, notwithstanding another adverse Constitutional Court ruling. Stronger domestic demand is supporting a pick-up in activity and lower unemployment. A broad-based recovery in sentiment has led to a decline in yields, allowing Portugal to issue a 5-year bond on favorable terms. The end-September 2013 quantitative PCs were met, and preliminary estimates suggest that the end-December 2013 targets were also met. The authorities are also implementing prior actions to safeguard the 2014 fiscal deficit target, after the Constitutional Court struck down an important pension measure contained in the 2014 budget. Portugal continues to confront major economic challenges. At above 15 percent, unemployment remains at unacceptable levels. High household and corporate indebtedness will continue to act as a brake on both consumption and investment. Portugal’s public debt and external liabilities are also high. In this environment, continued efforts to rationalize public spending, encourage orderly deleveraging, and promote growth and investment in the tradable sector will be essential. Program review discussions focused on sustaining the progress already made and exploring future reform challenges. The 2014 fiscal targets were reaffirmed. In addition to reforms of public financial management and efforts to maintain financial stability, discussions focused on the need to reorient the economy from a debt- financed and consumption-led model to an export-led growth model. Risks to attaining the objectives of the program remain high. Beginning in mid- 2012, legal challenges to fiscal measures have become recurrent, and—with key elements of the 2014 budget law now submitted to the Constitutional Court for review—these challenges have intensified in recent months. This significantly complicates the authorities’ efforts to rebalance the fiscal consolidation effort toward expenditure-based measures, undermines the quality of the resulting fiscal adjustment, and introduces high policy uncertainty, with an attendant negative impact on output and employment. In addition, with its high debt ratios and large refinancing needs, Portugal remains susceptible to abrupt changes in market sentiment. Staff supports the authorities’ request for completion of the tenth review and for waivers of applicability of the end-December PCs. The purchase released upon completion of this review would be in an amount equivalent to SDR 803 million.

CONSELHO CONSULTIVO - 14.FEV                            
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IMF Completes Tenth Review Under an EFF Arrangement with Portugal, Approves €0.91 Billion Disbursement

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today completed the tenth review of Portugal’s performance under an economic program supported by a 3-year, SDR 23.742 billion (about €26.87 billion) Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement. The completion of the review enables the immediate disbursement of an amount equivalent to SDR 0.803 billion (about € 0.91 billion), bringing total disbursements under the EFF arrangement to SDR 22.182 billion (about €25.1 billion).

All the prior actions for completion of this review were met. The Executive Board also approved a request for waivers of applicability for the end-December 2013 performance criteria (PC). This waiver was necessary because the Executive Board meeting was scheduled to take place after end-December 2013 but prior to the availability of data to assess the relevant PCs.

The EFF arrangement, which was approved on May 20, 2011 is part of a cooperative package of financing with the European Union amounting to €78 billion over three years. It entails exceptional access to IMF resources, amounting to 2,306 percent of Portugal’s IMF quota.

The Portuguese authorities implementation of their Fund-supported program has been commendable, despite recent legal setbacks. The authorities have promulgated a 2014 budget consistent with program objectives, and have introduced measures to offset the component of the pension reform invalidated by the constitutional court. At the same time, while the short-term outlook has improved, unemployment, while declining, remains high and risks remain. The authorities’ continued strong commitment to program implementation is crucial to strengthen the recovery and make further progress in achieving fiscal and external sustainability.

It will be important to complete fiscal consolidation to put the public debt firmly on a downward path. Pressures to increase public expenditure should be resisted, and efforts to rationalize public administration and narrow the gap between social transfers and contributions should be continued. Further fiscal structural reforms, including in revenue administration and arrears control, are critical to maintain sustainable public finances and minimize budgetary risks.

Preserving financial stability while promoting access to credit is necessary to facilitate a durable recovery. Given high levels of corporate debt that constrain bank credit, stepped-up efforts to facilitate an orderly deleveraging process and measures to promote access to funding for viable firms are needed.

Structural reforms are key to raising the Portuguese economy’s growth potential. Greater product market competition and labor market flexibility are still needed. In addition, higher investment, especially in the tradable sector, is needed to generate greater employment and the sustained external surpluses necessary to unwind imbalances.

The commitment by the European leaders to support Portugal until full market access is regained, combined with continued strong program implementation, is essential to help the country remain resilient to shocks and consolidate progresso.