| VARIAÇÕES HOMÓLOGAS | ||||||
| HOMOLOGOUS CHANGE | ||||||
| Empréstimos de Outras Instituições Financeiras Monetárias a Particulares | ||||||
| Loans of Other Monetary Financial Institutions to Private Individuals | ||||||
| Milhões de Euros | ||||||
| Millions of Euros | ||||||
| Crédito | Concedido | Cobrança Duvidosa | ||||
| Banking Credit | Installment Credit | Uncertain Collection | ||||
| Habitação | DEZ.16 | 94.577 | 2.134 | |||
| Mortgage | DEZ.17 | 93.216 | -1,44% | 1.983 | -7,08% | |
| Consumo | DEZ.16 | 12.475 | 790 | |||
| Consumption | DEZ.17 | 13.857 | 11,08% | 642 | -18,73% | |
| Outros Fins | DEZ.16 | 8.756 | 1.325 | |||
| Another Finality | DEZ.17 | 7.616 | -13,02% | 1.707 | 28,83% | |
| Total | DEZ.16 | 115.808 | 4.248 | |||
| Total | DEZ.17 | 114.689 | -0,97% | 4.332 | 1,98% | |
| Fonte: Boletim Estatístico do Banco de Portugal | ||||||
| Source: Portugal Central Bank | ||||||
Consultoria, aconselhamento e esclarecimento no Endividamento das Famílias e das Empresas não Financeiras. Consultadoria Estratégica Económica, Financeira e Bancária. Indebteness Consultancy for Family's and Enterprises. General Banking, Economics and Financial Strategic Consultancy.
quinta-feira, 22 de fevereiro de 2018
| VARIAÇÕES HOMÓLOGAS | ||||||
| HOMOLOGOUS CHANGE | ||||||
| Empréstimos de Outras Instituições Financeiras Monetárias a Empresas Não Financeiras | ||||||
| Loans of Other Monetary Financial Institutions to Non-Financial Corporations | ||||||
| Milhões de Euros | ||||||
| Millions of Euros | ||||||
| Crédito Concedido | Cobrança Duvidosa | |||||
| Installment Credit | Uncertain Collection | |||||
| DEZ.16 | 77.234 | 11.563 | ||||
| DEZ.17 | 73.015 | -5,46% | 9.256 | -19,95% | ||
| Fonte: Boletim Estatístico do Banco de Portugal | ||||||
| Source: Portugal Central Bank | ||||||
sexta-feira, 26 de janeiro de 2018
| VARIAÇÕES HOMÓLOGAS | ||||||
| HOMOLOGOUS CHANGE | ||||||
| Empréstimos de Outras Instituições Financeiras Monetárias a Particulares | ||||||
| Loans of Other Monetary Financial Institutions to Private Individuals | ||||||
| Milhões de Euros | ||||||
| Millions of Euros | ||||||
| Crédito | Concedido | Cobrança Duvidosa | ||||
| Banking Credit | Installment Credit | Uncertain Collection | ||||
| Habitação | NOV.16 | 94.745 | 2.367 | |||
| Mortgage | NOV.17 | 93.223 | -1,61% | 2.047 | -13,52% | |
| Consumo | NOV.16 | 12.559 | 1.015 | |||
| Consumption | NOV.17 | 13.629 | 8,52% | 674 | -33,60% | |
| Outros Fins | NOV.16 | 8.925 | 1.384 | |||
| Another Finality | NOV.17 | 7.682 | -13,93% | 1.785 | 28,97% | |
| Total | NOV.16 | 116.229 | 4.766 | |||
| Total | NOV.17 | 114.534 | -1,46% | 4.507 | -5,43% | |
| Fonte: Boletim Estatístico do Banco de Portugal | ||||||
| Source: Portugal Central Bank | ||||||
| VARIAÇÕES HOMÓLOGAS | ||||||
| HOMOLOGOUS CHANGE | ||||||
| Empréstimos de Outras Instituições Financeiras Monetárias a Empresas Não Financeiras | ||||||
| Loans of Other Monetary Financial Institutions to Non-Financial Corporations | ||||||
| Milhões de Euros | ||||||
| Millions of Euros | ||||||
| Crédito Concedido | Cobrança Duvidosa | |||||
| Installment Credit | Uncertain Collection | |||||
| NOV.16 | 79.264 | 12.817 | ||||
| NOV.17 | 74.277 | -6,29% | 9.913 | -22,66% | ||
| Fonte: Boletim Estatístico do Banco de Portugal | ||||||
| Source: Portugal Central Bank | ||||||
quarta-feira, 24 de janeiro de 2018
PORTUGAL – O perigo
outra vez do Endividamento
O
Endividamento das Famílias e das empresas, voltou a acelerar em Portugal de
novo.
Particularmente,
aquele que concerne às Famílias, pode tornar-se numa forte ameaça para a economia
portuguesa. Desde logo, para os seus principais financiadores – Banca e
Sociedades Financeiras.
Todos
estamos recordados do elevado nível de endividamento registado pela economia
portuguesa em 2011 – Famílias, Empresas e Estado – que de resto, levou Portugal
ao resgate financeiro, que tantos sacrifícios impuseram aos Portugueses e que ainda
hoje se fazem sentir e notar.
A
recente abertura do crédito por parte da Banca, é maléfico para a estabilização
da economia financeira (Banca) e para a nossa Balança de Transacções Correntes.
A
contrapartida do aumento do Consumo Privado, não deve ser redutor e como tal
não deverá justificar esse aumento do crédito concedido.
Como
é de todos sabido, o aumento do crédito concedido trás consigo imparidades e
crédito vencido, sendo a Banca obrigada a reforçar provisões para esses riscos
em incumprimento contractual. Como as margens são tão pequenas neste momento,
aproveitando uma histórica baixa nas taxas de juro de referência aplicadas
nestes empréstimos, quer dizer, que a Banca (na sua generalidade) “está a criar condições” para uma nova
crise no sector em Portugal.
É
mau também para a nossa Balança de Transacções Correntes, particularmente para
a Balança de Capitais, uma vez que a poupança gerada internamente não é
suficiente para cobrir o nível dos empréstimos, a Banca tem de se endividar no
exterior para ter recursos para emprestar.
Também
como a maior parte dos bens transaccionáveis consumidos e comprados a crédito,
são importados (automóveis, máquinas e outros bens),ajuda também a criar esse desequilíbrio
anteriormente referenciado.
Numa
altura em que (provávelmente) o BCE vai anunciar um forte abrandamento no instrumento
de política monetária – “quantitative easing”
– mais premente se torna o controlo que o sistema financeiro deverá ter sobre
os seus Balanços, particularmente nos empréstimos concedidos.
Parece
que a Banca em Portugal nada aprendeu com acontecimentos recentes. Retomou um
caminho perigoso e que, com um agravamento da conjuntura externa, poderá
potenciar e de novo, perdas muito significativas, fortalecimento dos seus
principais rácios, particularmente o Tier-1 e o Core Tier-1, e no limite,
poderá levar á resolução de alguma Instituição menos robusta.
Christine Lagarde about Portugal and it Reforms
“I was very pleased to meet today with Portugal’s Prime Minister Antonio Costa and, also, to have the opportunity to congratulate Minister of Finance Mario Centeno on his election as president of the Eurogroup. Portugal is a great example of a country that is committed to transforming its economy, and is now reaping the benefits in the form of renewed growth, falling unemployment, sustained market access, and being able to repay most of its IMF loan ahead of schedule. I encouraged them to continue on this positive path for Portugal.”
“I was very pleased to meet today with Portugal’s Prime Minister Antonio Costa and, also, to have the opportunity to congratulate Minister of Finance Mario Centeno on his election as president of the Eurogroup. Portugal is a great example of a country that is committed to transforming its economy, and is now reaping the benefits in the form of renewed growth, falling unemployment, sustained market access, and being able to repay most of its IMF loan ahead of schedule. I encouraged them to continue on this positive path for Portugal.”
Results of the January 2017 euro area Banks- ECB
* Loan growth continues to be supported by increasing demand across all loan categories
Credit standards for loans to enterprises broadly stabilising
Continued easing of credit terms and conditions across all loan categories
Easing impact of TLTROs on credit standards increased
According to the January 2017 bank lending survey (BLS), credit standards (i.e. banks’ internal guidelines or loan approval criteria) for loans to enterprises tightened somewhat in net terms in the fourth quarter of 2016 (a net percentage of 3%, compared with 0% in the previous quarter), driven mainly by developments in the Netherlands. This was the first net tightening since the fourth quarter of 2013 and was broadly in line with expectations in the previous survey round. Banks’ lower willingness to tolerate risk was the main factor behind the slight net tightening of credit standards on loans to enterprises. Credit standards on loans to households for house purchase remained broadly unchanged (a net percentage of 1%, compared with -4% in the previous quarter). For the first quarter of 2017, banks expect a net easing of credit standards across all loan categories.
The net easing of banks’ overall terms and conditions on new loans (i.e. the actual terms and conditions agreed in the loan contract) continued across all loan categories, mainly driven by a further narrowing of margins.
Net demand continued to increase across all loan categories. The low general level of interest rates, merger and acquisition activity and debt refinancing remained the main contributing factors to net demand for loans to enterprises in the fourth quarter of 2016. Net demand for housing loans was driven by the low general level of interest rates, continued favourable housing market prospects and consumer confidence.
Euro area banks continued to adjust to ongoing regulatory and supervisory changes in the second half of 2016 by further strengthening their capital positions and reducing their risk-weighted assets. At the euro area level, banks reported a broadly neutral impact of regulatory or supervisory action on credit standards and credit margins.
Regarding the targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) conducted by the Eurosystem, 37% of the euro area BLS banks reported that they had participated in the third TLTRO-II operation. Participation was driven by profitability motives, reflecting the attractiveness of the TLTRO-II. Banks continued to indicate that the main effect of the past TLTROs on loan supply was an easing of terms and conditions, but the easing impact on credit standards also increased.
The BLS, which is conducted four times a year, was developed by the Eurosystem in order to improve the understanding of banks’ lending behaviour in the euro area. The results reported in the January 2017 survey relate to changes in the fourth quarter of 2016 and expectations of changes in the first quarter of 2017, unless otherwise indicated.
* Loan growth continues to be supported by increasing demand across all loan categories
According to the January 2017 bank lending survey (BLS), credit standards (i.e. banks’ internal guidelines or loan approval criteria) for loans to enterprises tightened somewhat in net terms in the fourth quarter of 2016 (a net percentage of 3%, compared with 0% in the previous quarter), driven mainly by developments in the Netherlands. This was the first net tightening since the fourth quarter of 2013 and was broadly in line with expectations in the previous survey round. Banks’ lower willingness to tolerate risk was the main factor behind the slight net tightening of credit standards on loans to enterprises. Credit standards on loans to households for house purchase remained broadly unchanged (a net percentage of 1%, compared with -4% in the previous quarter). For the first quarter of 2017, banks expect a net easing of credit standards across all loan categories.
The net easing of banks’ overall terms and conditions on new loans (i.e. the actual terms and conditions agreed in the loan contract) continued across all loan categories, mainly driven by a further narrowing of margins.
Net demand continued to increase across all loan categories. The low general level of interest rates, merger and acquisition activity and debt refinancing remained the main contributing factors to net demand for loans to enterprises in the fourth quarter of 2016. Net demand for housing loans was driven by the low general level of interest rates, continued favourable housing market prospects and consumer confidence.
Euro area banks continued to adjust to ongoing regulatory and supervisory changes in the second half of 2016 by further strengthening their capital positions and reducing their risk-weighted assets. At the euro area level, banks reported a broadly neutral impact of regulatory or supervisory action on credit standards and credit margins.
Regarding the targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) conducted by the Eurosystem, 37% of the euro area BLS banks reported that they had participated in the third TLTRO-II operation. Participation was driven by profitability motives, reflecting the attractiveness of the TLTRO-II. Banks continued to indicate that the main effect of the past TLTROs on loan supply was an easing of terms and conditions, but the easing impact on credit standards also increased.
The BLS, which is conducted four times a year, was developed by the Eurosystem in order to improve the understanding of banks’ lending behaviour in the euro area. The results reported in the January 2017 survey relate to changes in the fourth quarter of 2016 and expectations of changes in the first quarter of 2017, unless otherwise indicated.
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